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    (Original post by ShinLee)
    Not only because of the fear to be imprisoned. Almost any Chinese people hate the word "independence", I think it's because China had formed a strong sense of unification since BC221 when Qin shihuang ruined all the nations and unified the mainland. But EU never gather together.


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    What's this bc stuff? Before corbyn?


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    (Original post by paul514)
    What's this bc stuff? Before corbyn?


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    Sorry, it should be 221 BC, I mean the year.


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    (Original post by ShinLee)
    Sorry, it should be 221 BC, I mean the year.


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    It was a joke mate


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    (Original post by offhegoes)
    Getting rid of Trident would save a few pennies.
    Yes, "pennies" in these terms is about right: less than the Scottish Government's underspend actually. It's rather like saying I'll spend £100,000 a year on champagne, but economise by buying slightly cheaper teabags.

    The proportionate annual cost of Trident to Scotland is a fractional of Scotland's deficit - it's about a twentieth of our overall defence budget in the UK and is not a major public spending outlay.

    This was the problem with the SNP's White Paper too. Faced with a fiscal black hole which we see is going to reach £10 billion, they made £600 million of savings - which they promptly then re-spent. Simply not credible.
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    (Original post by cbreef)
    I'll give you a few of those, but why would we put up trade barriers with rUK? Industries aren't going to "disappear" either, sure they'll take a hit, but I can't see people abandoning investment in the North Sea for example over independence. Also, surely our budget deficit can't be any worse than say, Spain's/Greece's/Italy's?
    Yes, our budget deficit - as a proportion of GDP - is worse than all of those countries. Frankly we need to get out of the mindset of "och, it willnae be so bad" - it will, and brushing off the figures out of cheerful optimism doesn't make them go away.

    Scotland's deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2014-15 was 9.7%.

    So for 2014, what were the other countries? Keep in mind 3% is the EU's excessive deficit threshold.

    In Greece, it's deficit was 3.5% of GDP which has been reduced considerably thanks to the wonderful actions of the EU. (It's since shot back up again, but c'est la vie - as I'm sure the European Central Bank will not be saying).

    Italy is at 3.0%

    Spain is at 5.8%.

    Scotland's deficit is falling, but its relative deficit with the UK is increasing. The reason it is falling, incidentally, is because of the fiscal restraints put on it by the UK Government - restraints that the Scottish Government protested vigorously.

    The North Sea, at the age and stage of development of the basin, is hugely dependent on decommissioning reliefs. The UK has backed these to the tune of £20 billion - not to mention other incentives. This is why the North Sea is now costing the public purse money rather than making any. Don't make these pledges, however, and the cost of operating shoots up hugely.

    Now, the "trade barriers" point. Separating a single, unified domestic market is inherently creating a trade barrier. Separate regulatory systems create trade barriers. Separate business tax systems create trade barriers. Scotland and the UK would no longer be harmonised in this regard, and trade would decline as a result.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    Normally I would agree with you L I B (and normally we are on the same page about a lot of things), but I think this one occasion is seriously not applicable. Membership of the EU goes into more than simply being one more policy in which Westminster differs from Holyrood. It strikes into feelings of identity, international relations, and liberal democracy as well. It's a whole different kettle of fish.

    I see elsewhere you have talked about Scotland's membership of the UK clearly being beneficial to Scotland, saving it from recession-level spending cuts and also right here talking about how referendums should not be lightly granted on the same issue repetitively. I would agree with you, but those who matter - the Scots, 45% of whom voted Yes in 2012 - are the ones who you need to persuade, not me. And the Brexit referendum has shown that no number of rational arguments about economic utility of the Union or the political naivety of separation can turn the opinion of the ignorant public.
    I understand what you're saying, but I do attach importance to the UK Government's position as custodians of the union. Yes, leaving the EU is potentially a big political move - I say potentially since there's a distinct possibility it will be watered-down considerably - I don't question that, but ultimately so are many other policies the Government are involved in. Perhaps few so blunt, but the Government does ultimately decide our overall economic and social structure - which is far more significant than EU membership.

    As for the economic argument against leaving a union: I'd say after the two votes in 2014 it's a 1-1 draw on that. The economic argument was central to the pro-UK case in 2014 and won. It is not that people don't care about it - it's very important to them - it's often that they have competing priorities, or sometimes (as with the Stronger In campaign) it just isn't all that well made.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    Yes, our budget deficit - as a proportion of GDP - is worse than all of those countries. Frankly we need to get out of the mindset of "och, it willnae be so bad" - it will, and brushing off the figures out of cheerful optimism doesn't make them go away.

    Scotland's deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2014-15 was 9.7%.

    So for 2014, what were the other countries? Keep in mind 3% is the EU's excessive deficit threshold.

    In Greece, it's deficit was 3.5% of GDP which has been reduced considerably thanks to the wonderful actions of the EU. (It's since shot back up again, but c'est la vie - as I'm sure the European Central Bank will not be saying).

    Italy is at 3.0%

    Spain is at 5.8%.

    Scotland's deficit is falling, but its relative deficit with the UK is increasing. The reason it is falling, incidentally, is because of the fiscal restraints put on it by the UK Government - restraints that the Scottish Government protested vigorously.

    The North Sea, at the age and stage of development of the basin, is hugely dependent on decommissioning reliefs. The UK has backed these to the tune of £20 billion - not to mention other incentives. This is why the North Sea is now costing the public purse money rather than making any. Don't make these pledges, however, and the cost of operating shoots up hugely.

    Now, the "trade barriers" point. Separating a single, unified domestic market is inherently creating a trade barrier. Separate regulatory systems create trade barriers. Separate business tax systems create trade barriers. Scotland and the UK would no longer be harmonised in this regard, and trade would decline as a result.
    Whilst it's clearly not all roses, that figure of 9.7% is excluding North Sea revenue, correct?And the same IFS report suggested that that figure might well improve should Scotland become independent.
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    (Original post by offhegoes)
    Whilst it's clearly not all roses, that figure of 9.7% is excluding North Sea revenue, correct?And the same IFS report suggested that that figure might well improve should Scotland become independent.
    The Scottish Government's own figures show that even including NS money its finances are deeply in the red. The fact is that Scotland gets much more from the central pot than it puts in and has done for a long time, but this is no different to anywhere else in the UK.

    Nicola Sturgeon has not called another referendum because she knows she wouldn't win and because she has an even worse economic case to make than last time. That is why she is concentrating, again, on persuading more people to support leaving instead of governing the country. Never mind her flagrant hypocrisy in wanting to stay in the EU but not the UK.
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    I think it will only happen if they can guarantee EU membership for Scotland. Otherwise, I don't think Scotland would really want to be outside of both the EU and the UK, which is what would happen if the UK leaves, and then Scotland leaves the EU and has to struggle to be readmitted as a member. It's also worth bearing in mind that they'd probably have to accept Schengen, the Euro, and lots of other things they enjoy opt-outs from now. It's not clear at all that such a deal would be attractive enough to Scotland.

    Sure, they'll be angry at England for taking them out of the EU, but leaving the UK just to get back at England even if they can't necessarily get back into the EU quickly and under favorable conditions isn't a very practical thing to do.

    Now, if the EU caves and offers Scotland that reverse Greenland deal they want in an attempt to sabotage and break-up the UK in order to prevent it from being able to do well outside the EU as a rival power, then Scotland is considerably more likely to leave. But then that move might draw hostility from other European states that have regions desiring to break away and backfire on the EU.
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    (Original post by Midlander)
    The Scottish Government's own figures show that even including NS money its finances are deeply in the red. The fact is that Scotland gets much more from the central pot than it puts in and has done for a long time, but this is no different to anywhere else in the UK.

    Nicola Sturgeon has not called another referendum because she knows she wouldn't win and because she has an even worse economic case to make than last time. That is why she is concentrating, again, on persuading more people to support leaving instead of governing the country. Never mind her flagrant hypocrisy in wanting to stay in the EU but not the UK.
    Few points:

    My comment was not to suggest that all is great or that it all will be great. I was just looking to provide a little balance to Lib's post, although it was in general balanced as most of his are.

    Secondly I don't think it is necessarily hypcritical to want to leave the UK but still cite cooperation and unity as a reason to want to stay in the EU. The UK and EU are very different in their origins, nature and implication for the future.
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    (Original post by offhegoes)
    Few points:

    My comment was not to suggest that all is great or that it all will be great. I was just looking to provide a little balance to Lib's post, although it was in general balanced as most of his are.

    Secondly I don't think it is necessarily hypcritical to want to leave the UK but still cite cooperation and unity as a reason to want to stay in the EU. The UK and EU are very different in their origins, nature and implication for the future.
    Oh come on.
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    (Original post by Midlander)
    Oh come on.
    Kittens are cute. So are tiger cubs. But I'm not going to get a tiger cub. Each choice has a completely different set of positives and negatives attached to it.
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    (Original post by offhegoes)
    Kittens are cute. So are tiger cubs. But I'm not going to get a tiger cub. Each choice has a completely different set of positives and negatives attached to it.
    Meaningless guff. Scottish nationalists like Sturgeon call for unity and co-operation with the Belgians/Germans/French etc but can't stomach it with the people who share their island. It is hypocrisy 101.
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    (Original post by Midlander)
    Meaningless guff. Scottish nationalists like Sturgeon call for unity and co-operation with the Belgians/Germans/French etc but can't stomach it with the people who share their island. It is hypocrisy 101.
    If you don't understand the point I am making then just say so, instead of dismissing it and repeating what you've already said :rolleyes:

    Cooperation with the EU is desired both because cooperation in general is a good thing and also because many in Scotland see the EU as having similar goals and a similar outlook on issues such as immigration, rightly or wrong. Cooperation in this sense is therefore a reason to want to Remain.

    Cooperation with the UK is desired too of course, but when the current form of this cooperation inhibits the ability of Scotland to make certain fundamental decisions, one of which being membership of the EU, that starts to make a decision to become independent a rational one without contradicting a general leaning towards cooperation. After all, as many Brexiteers went to great lengths to point out, leaving the UK doesn't mean not cooperating with the UK. It just means forming a new and positive relationship with rUK
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    (Original post by jeremy1988)
    I think it will only happen if they can guarantee EU membership for Scotland. Otherwise, I don't think Scotland would really want to be outside of both the EU and the UK, which is what would happen if the UK leaves, and then Scotland leaves the EU and has to struggle to be readmitted as a member. It's also worth bearing in mind that they'd probably have to accept Schengen, the Euro, and lots of other things they enjoy opt-outs from now. It's not clear at all that such a deal would be attractive enough to Scotland.
    Yep, that lack of guarantee is a fundamental weakness in their case. Ultimately they cannot get it as it's in the gift of 27 member-states
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    (Original post by ckfeister)
    They won't leave.
    *
    *
    They can and will. It was close before and this has utterly damaged any hopes of healing the relationship with Scotland. *
    *
    I do find it amusing when people say they won't as usually they tend to be english Leave supporters, you know unrepresentative of who will vote. I also find it interesting* it tends to be Leave voters pretending this won't happen. So the UK is a special snowflake that can survive outside a bigger union and thrive and this needed to be done to preserve democracy yet Scotland should stay repressed in its clearly not working union? Hypocrisy when it suits your agenda eh?

    *
    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Being a middle class anglo-scot I can tell you that the liberal section of Scotland that was for staying in the UK has changed to prefering INDY within the EU.
    * *
    *
    *Exactly. This result has turned people. All the people who voted for Independence before have been completely closed of to reconciling with the UK and others are now convinced Independence is the way forward. It wasn't a massive victory to stay in the UK and now a massive example of the UK making a absolutely terrible decision and dragging Scotland through economic instability has been shown. The scottish won't forgive this, younger people already voted for Independence - that number will only grow as the older Leave supporters die and new people of voting age are introduced as Independence supporters. Now a fair amount of people have swug, Independence will win.*
    *
    (Original post by L i b)
    I've learned well that the more people desperately insist their political views are inevitably going to come to fruition, the less secure they are in that belief. When Bertrand Russell said "the whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wise people so full of doubts", this is the sort of thing he was aiming at. Even Karl Marx, in suggesting communism was inevitable, referred to external forces and economic theorising. It was wishful thinking, but he backed it up. Scottish nationalists do not even have the legitimacy of the extremists - they simply assert as their arguments become ever-more paper-thin that they are somehow irresistible to the great Scottish public. Don't fall into the trap of thinking because you believe something, everyone else is somehow going to be persuaded of it.
    *
    *
    *I'm sure because I'm on the ground. I was here in 2014 and was here in 2016. I saw how many people did want to leave and many people are disgusted by leaving the EU. There is no repairing the relationship, there is no union. It is an anchor, dragging the Scottish into a terrible mistake without a plan. Their job security is threatened, their children's futures have been jeopardise and over what - Terry English wanting to go back to the days of the Empire and disliking Immigrants? *
    *
    There is disgust and there is hate and there is shame and there is no repairing this. People aren't going to "get over it" as the Leave sheep say - the UK is never recovering from this and Scotland will leave when it gets the chance. **

    *
    (Original post by sleepysnooze)
    why on earth would scotland exit the british union over something as trivial (to scotland) as brexit? do scottish people *really* care about the EU? why? how does it affect scotland so much? does scotland get millions of immigrants from the EU? nope, so what is the reason? to make the english have more immigration?
    *
    *
    It is the final straw. It is another piece of evidence that Scotland does not have the same views as the rest of the country and the union is not working. Until Scotland leaves, it will be forced into decisions it vehemently opposed and then expected to be happy with the negative consequences. Freedom of movement lost, jobs are risk, Boris Johnson representing us, NHS bursary scrapped and Trident renewed & forced into Scotland against the wishes of the people. *
    *
    There were three demonstrations by young people outside the Scottish Parliament in the week after the result to show support for staying in the EU. Several universities sent round reassurances to foreign students which language that might as well said "we are glad to have you, it is the english that are racist and ignorant". *I got an email from my student association titled 'Deport Theresea May". *
    *
    This isn't something that will be resolved. Their rights are being forcibly taken away from them, their jobs at risk, the future bleak for something they didn't vote for and don't want. All the time Labour has fallen apart. It shows unless Scotland becomes Independent, conservative governments will just time and again take away everything they value

    * *
    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Yes, my relatives living in Edinburgh voted to stay in the Union last time will all be voting to leave the union now. Its far far far more important to be a member of the EU than it is to be a member of the UK. I myself will be attempting to get an Irish passport via great grandmother (the Irish government expect over a million applications from England over the coming year).
    * *
    *
    Again, people who voted stay regret it. There is no trust or faith in the union. It doesn't benefit them, it doesn't help them. It is the English making a decision, ignoring the Scottish, forcing that decision through and expecting gratitude. No wonder they are leaving.*

    (Original post by Midlander)
    Meaningless guff. Scottish nationalists like Sturgeon call for unity and co-operation with the Belgians/Germans/French etc but can't stomach it with the people who share their island. It is hypocrisy 101.
    *
    *
    Because the people who share their island belittle them, constantly ignore their feelings, drag them into messes time and time again, jeopardise their futures, throw them into a completely unneccessary economic downturn, take rights that they value away from them. People they see as small minded and intolerent. *
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    (Original post by elitepower)
    *
    *
    They can and will. It was close before and this has utterly damaged any hopes of healing the relationship with Scotland. *
    *
    I do find it amusing when people say they won't as usually they tend to be english Leave supporters, you know unrepresentative of who will vote. I also find it interesting* it tends to be Leave voters pretending this won't happen. So the UK is a special snowflake that can survive outside a bigger union and thrive and this needed to be done to preserve democracy yet Scotland should stay repressed in its clearly not working union? Hypocrisy when it suits your agenda eh?

    * * *
    *
    *Exactly. This result has turned people. All the people who voted for Independence before have been completely closed of to reconciling with the UK and others are now convinced Independence is the way forward. It wasn't a massive victory to stay in the UK and now a massive example of the UK making a absolutely terrible decision and dragging Scotland through economic instability has been shown. The scottish won't forgive this, younger people already voted for Independence - that number will only grow as the older Leave supporters die and new people of voting age are introduced as Independence supporters. Now a fair amount of people have swug, Independence will win.*
    *
    *
    *
    *I'm sure because I'm on the ground. I was here in 2014 and was here in 2016. I saw how many people did want to leave and many people are disgusted by leaving the EU. There is no repairing the relationship, there is no union. It is an anchor, dragging the Scottish into a terrible mistake without a plan. Their job security is threatened, their children's futures have been jeopardise and over what - Terry English wanting to go back to the days of the Empire and disliking Immigrants? *
    *
    There is disgust and there is hate and there is shame and there is no repairing this. People aren't going to "get over it" as the Leave sheep say - the UK is never recovering from this and Scotland will leave when it gets the chance. **

    * *
    *
    It is the final straw. It is another piece of evidence that Scotland does not have the same views as the rest of the country and the union is not working. Until Scotland leaves, it will be forced into decisions it vehemently opposed and then expected to be happy with the negative consequences. Freedom of movement lost, jobs are risk, Boris Johnson representing us, NHS bursary scrapped and Trident renewed & forced into Scotland against the wishes of the people. *
    *
    There were three demonstrations by young people outside the Scottish Parliament in the week after the result to show support for staying in the EU. Several universities sent round reassurances to foreign students which language that might as well said "we are glad to have you, it is the english that are racist and ignorant". *I got an email from my student association titled 'Deport Theresea May". *
    *
    This isn't something that will be resolved. Their rights are being forcibly taken away from them, their jobs at risk, the future bleak for something they didn't vote for and don't want. All the time Labour has fallen apart. It shows unless Scotland becomes Independent, conservative governments will just time and again take away everything they value

    * * * *
    *
    Again, people who voted stay regret it. There is no trust or faith in the union. It doesn't benefit them, it doesn't help them. It is the English making a decision, ignoring the Scottish, forcing that decision through and expecting gratitude. No wonder they are leaving.*

    *
    *
    Because the people who share their island belittle them, constantly ignore their feelings, drag them into messes time and time again, jeopardise their futures, throw them into a completely unneccessary economic downturn, take rights that they value away from them. People they see as small minded and intolerent. *
    They need parliaments permission it simply won't be given for a few more decades


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    (Original post by elitepower)
    *
    *
    They can and will. It was close before and this has utterly damaged any hopes of healing the relationship with Scotland. *
    *
    I do find it amusing when people say they won't as usually they tend to be english Leave supporters, you know unrepresentative of who will vote. I also find it interesting* it tends to be Leave voters pretending this won't happen. So the UK is a special snowflake that can survive outside a bigger union and thrive and this needed to be done to preserve democracy yet Scotland should stay repressed in its clearly not working union? Hypocrisy when it suits your agenda eh?

    * * *
    *
    *Exactly. This result has turned people. All the people who voted for Independence before have been completely closed of to reconciling with the UK and others are now convinced Independence is the way forward. It wasn't a massive victory to stay in the UK and now a massive example of the UK making a absolutely terrible decision and dragging Scotland through economic instability has been shown. The scottish won't forgive this, younger people already voted for Independence - that number will only grow as the older Leave supporters die and new people of voting age are introduced as Independence supporters. Now a fair amount of people have swug, Independence will win.*
    *
    *
    *
    *I'm sure because I'm on the ground. I was here in 2014 and was here in 2016. I saw how many people did want to leave and many people are disgusted by leaving the EU. There is no repairing the relationship, there is no union. It is an anchor, dragging the Scottish into a terrible mistake without a plan. Their job security is threatened, their children's futures have been jeopardise and over what - Terry English wanting to go back to the days of the Empire and disliking Immigrants? *
    *
    There is disgust and there is hate and there is shame and there is no repairing this. People aren't going to "get over it" as the Leave sheep say - the UK is never recovering from this and Scotland will leave when it gets the chance. **

    * *
    *
    It is the final straw. It is another piece of evidence that Scotland does not have the same views as the rest of the country and the union is not working. Until Scotland leaves, it will be forced into decisions it vehemently opposed and then expected to be happy with the negative consequences. Freedom of movement lost, jobs are risk, Boris Johnson representing us, NHS bursary scrapped and Trident renewed & forced into Scotland against the wishes of the people. *
    *
    There were three demonstrations by young people outside the Scottish Parliament in the week after the result to show support for staying in the EU. Several universities sent round reassurances to foreign students which language that might as well said "we are glad to have you, it is the english that are racist and ignorant". *I got an email from my student association titled 'Deport Theresea May". *
    *
    This isn't something that will be resolved. Their rights are being forcibly taken away from them, their jobs at risk, the future bleak for something they didn't vote for and don't want. All the time Labour has fallen apart. It shows unless Scotland becomes Independent, conservative governments will just time and again take away everything they value

    * * * *
    *
    Again, people who voted stay regret it. There is no trust or faith in the union. It doesn't benefit them, it doesn't help them. It is the English making a decision, ignoring the Scottish, forcing that decision through and expecting gratitude. No wonder they are leaving.*

    *
    *
    Because the people who share their island belittle them, constantly ignore their feelings, drag them into messes time and time again, jeopardise their futures, throw them into a completely unneccessary economic downturn, take rights that they value away from them. People they see as small minded and intolerent. *
    Actually, who said Scottish people in favour of independence? Why do you think they not holding it for... 60% yes isn't possible the advisors of Scottish First Minister said.
    Why? Democracy vote across entire UK must be respected.
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    (Original post by elitepower)
    There is no repairing the relationship, there is no union. It is an anchor, dragging the Scottish into a terrible mistake without a plan. Their job security is threatened, their children's futures have been jeopardise and over what - Terry English wanting to go back to the days of the Empire and disliking Immigrants? *
    *
    There is disgust and there is hate and there is shame and there is no repairing this. People aren't going to "get over it" as the Leave sheep say - the UK is never recovering from this and Scotland will leave when it gets the chance.
    Funny then, how the only polls that have been conducted since showing a "yes" vote in the lead have been margin-of-error stuff. It seems your assurance that Scotland would leave the UK is not matched by any evidence whatsoever.

    I've posted several times on here about people who go around asserting their political views are inevitably going to win out. They're usually the least secure: it doesn't take a degree in psychology to see that is why they feel they have to go around making these assertions. Often it's easier to keep fighting than accept defeat.

    For my part, as a Remain voter, I accept the view of the people on this one. I accept that we are leaving the EU, yet I'm looking to what can be secured and what elements of our relationship with Europe can be retained despite that.

    As for Scottish nationalism, I think any objective analysis would suggest it is more important than ever: providing security, a single domestic market both more integrated and more important to Scotland than the EU, billions of pounds worth of fiscal transfers supporting Scotland's public spending.

    Scotland exports four times as much to the rest of the UK as it does to the rest of the EU combined - it is extremely clear what union is more important. In terms of free movement, many times as many Scots use their free movement within the UK than live or work in the rest of the EU.

    Yes, I feel we've lost something by voting to leave the EU - but to suggest that this set-back somehow endorses the ridiculous case for Scottish nationalism is straightforwardly batty. Indeed, it's the usual desperation of the Scottish nationalists in action: trying to link everything to their one issue of independence.

    As for the "Terry English wanting to go back to the days of the Empire and disliking Immigrants" stuff, that's just bigoted abuse and doesn't deserve any sort of answer.
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    (Original post by ckfeister)
    Actually, who said Scottish people in favour of independence? Why do you think they not holding it for...
    On one level, the nationalists know fine well that they couldn't win a referendum if they were to have one granted now.

    The rest is just presentation: assert that we're constantly surging, to mask that we're not. Assertion, made often enough, gains currency as accepted wisdom. In fact, pre-Brexit polls were showing them losing ground in support for independence and they suffered a significant electoral setback in May, losing their majority in the Scottish Parliament.

    What do you do when, at best, you're stagnating? Pretend otherwise.
 
 
 
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