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Should universities ditch the predicted grade system?

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Original post by She-Ra
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-44525719

Based on how your exams have gone this summer how are you feeling about hitting your uni offer? Are you worried?

Last year we saw students still being accepted by their firm - even if they had missed their offer by one or two grades. Despite this though, it can feel massively stressful :s-smilie:

Did you/ have you ever considered asking your teacher to inflate your grades (predict higher) to help you get an offer from your dream uni?

Here's what's being discussed in the news today:



Head teachers have backed calls for a change, saying the current approach is "no longer fit for purpose".


Completely agree the amount of people in my year who got predicted 3 A* and will not achieve it is ridiculous.
Original post by SarcAndSpark
But if unis want post results application, there has to be compromise somewhere. Imo August to October is too quick for students. It might work for unis but too many students will feel pressured into making snap, quick decisions and end up in the wrong place.



You mean as they have to do during clearing?

One of the key problems with the UK admissions system is that applicants are able to defer making decisions for far too long.

If you look at Ireland, it has a pre-results application system but you get a single offer based on your preference order when making your application.

http://www.cao.ie/index.php?page=timetableevents&bb=importantdates
I’m predicted AAB I think I’m going to get A*BB so i think i’d have been better off with my predicted grades
Original post by PQ
The push for post results applications isn't coming from universities - and they generally don't want to compromise. Any compromise isn't likely to be a complete rehaul of the academic calendar

If implemented it wouldn't be August to October - it would require earlier exams (April-May), quicker marking* and a late June results day...plus October starts.

The long break is for research - which includes conferences which are usually in the Easter and Summer periods. But it's also for academic staff to take their annual leave - many can't take leave during term time due to teaching commitments and so they have time off in the summer break...pushing that window for annual leave into the winter months isn't ideal. Many academics opt for that career because they have children and need to take time off over the school holidays. A shift to short summer breaks and longer winter breaks would likely mean more women pushed out of academia (either single parents or they're expected to sacrifice their careers because their partner is a higher earner).

And like you say - it's not great for students either.

*The quicker marking isn't likely to happen though - most markers are teachers and so aren't free to mark in May-June as they're still teaching and/or invigilating GCSE exams


I always thought unis were in favour of post results applications but if they're not then fair enough no need to compromise. I always thought unis were the ones sort of pushing for this in the past.

Tbf my understanding from women in academia is that you already can't really have a family and have a brilliant career--unless you have a partner who is willing to step up and pick up a lot of the slack. I'm not convinced that changing the summer holiday would make it worse. However this is probably a topic for another thread.

Moving exams to April is tricky as if there's a late easter there could be clashes between the holidays and exams. It would cost extra to open schools in the holidays obviously.
Original post by SarcAndSpark
I always thought unis were in favour of post results applications but if they're not then fair enough no need to compromise. I always thought unis were the ones sort of pushing for this in the past.

Tbf my understanding from women in academia is that you already can't really have a family and have a brilliant career--unless you have a partner who is willing to step up and pick up a lot of the slack. I'm not convinced that changing the summer holiday would make it worse. However this is probably a topic for another thread.

Moving exams to April is tricky as if there's a late easter there could be clashes between the holidays and exams. It would cost extra to open schools in the holidays obviously.

The push was from the Labour government - because they saw the inherent unfairness in the system and wanted to fix that. Universities resisted, schools resisted, exam boards resisted...for a working PQA would require compromise on all sides to give enough time for decisions/interviews etc.

The problem with predicted grades can be solved easily though - just take them out of the UCAS form. They're not required and shouldn't be being used to filter applicants.
Original post by nulli tertius
You mean as they have to do during clearing?

One of the key problems with the UK admissions system is that applicants are able to defer making decisions for far too long.

If you look at Ireland, it has a pre-results application system but you get a single offer based on your preference order when making your application.

http://www.cao.ie/index.php?page=timetableevents&bb=importantdates


I know in the past it was sort of received wisdom that applicants who got places via clearing were more likely to drop out due to having to make snap decisions in clearing. I don't know if that has changed as more and more students go through it.

The problem imo is that UK unis are particularly bad in terms of putting pressure on applicants to make snap decisions. The application system I've been through most recently is the PGCE application system which does require a quicker decision- however you are obviously allowed to wait for all 3 decisions before deciding. I have heard stories of applicants being told their offer will expire much more quickly than the deadline put in place by UCAS- sometimes before students have been to their last interview.

I agree there are flaws with the system but I also think that there are unis who don't play fair.

Eta: the Irish system does look good.
(edited 5 years ago)


Whats that got to do with what people do in a gap year?
I think predicted grades shouldn't be scrapped off. When you are predicted something higher or lower, you have the capability to motivate yourself to work harder on those grades. I like using predicted grades to get into unis that I want without waiting for the actual results. Actual results will be affected if you work hard on your predicted grades.

However, there's some bias when your teachers give you predicted grades, so that's another issue.

I agree from the other post that they have to see our passion, activities, or whatever on the personal statement to get into the uni of choice fairly.
Original post by PQ
They're not required.


I'm not sure that is true though. When under the coalition UCAS was made to look at radical change to the admissions system: "Apply 1" and "Apply 2", UCAS came up with a frightening statistic for the number of applications that didn't meet the stated minimum course requirements.

You only have to look on TSR at the number of minor public school students who have been brain-washed by schools and parents into an Oxbridge or nothing mentality. They are not as visible, but there will be similar Bristol/Durham/St Andrews or nothing students and Russell Group or nothing students, in each case, for whom the only tenuous link with reality is the school's estimated grades. Take those estimates out of the process and how do you stop these universities being deluged with inappropriate applications?
I think we should bring back AS exams, even if they don't count but are compulsory. Either that or have admissions tests but for some people these can lead to more stress.
If we got rid of them, how would a uni know who was capable for their course?
Some people get shocking GCSE's but this gets turned around and do better in A-levels. Likewise this could be reversed.

If we applied after we had results then does that mean everyone would have a compulsory gap year? Or would they apply in August to go that September. Also not all countries release grades at the same time meaning some people would be able to apply earlier. How would it work?
I think its doable, if uni terms starts a bit later say November and results come out abit earlier say end of july.

3 months is enough
No they shouldn't!! I understand theres issues with it but if we ditch the predicted grade system, that would waste pretty much a year of school which will cost so much to the government; imagine getting your grades in August and only being able to apply then, its gonna take a few months to find a uni, delaying your education. Yeah sure it isn't ideal but we're managing at the moment so there's no reason to change.
yes we should because it makes students feel like it's impossible to do better

idk if this is just my school but say if i got predicted CCC , my school will do everything in it's power to make sure i don't dream any bigger , not even joking here
Original post by Ray_Shadows
yes we should because it makes students feel like it's impossible to do better

idk if this is just my school but say if i got predicted CCC , my school will do everything in it's power to make sure i don't dream any bigger , not even joking here


It also really demotivates you. And I also feel like if you get predicted really high, you'll underestimate in the real exams.
Original post by Shadowdraconis
It also really demotivates you. And I also feel like if you get predicted really high, you'll underestimate in the real exams.


true . hence why i have to resist 2 papers in september
With the lack of AS results and only one exam period, they could probably sit exams slightly earlier, say April time, results come back at the end of June
The time in-between can be spent on university open days, maybe some different curriculum activities at school, filling out UCAS
Then when results come in, you have say one week to put in your choices corresponding to the final grades you get

This means people aren't wasting time applying to place they won't get into
Obviously an earlier system can be used for medicine applications, and oxbridge as they go through long interview processes
I think that universities should introduce the basic admissions tests (e.g. the ones that test critical thinking or just skills that are needed for university study in general) and then interview like 80-90% of the candidates (depending on their scores within the admissions tests) and then make the offers on the results day depending on the actual grades as well as performance on interviews. I think that this could be quite effective as: every one gets a chance to demonstrate their personalities to the tutors, it doesn't restrict university options and can make people work harder to increase their chances on results day, it gets candidates to focus on developing skills for university through the tests rather than just focussing on getting the grades. Also, for me, there is nothing worse than getting a conditional offer from your dream university and then finding out that all your efforts from the selection process were a waste, whilst this method is perhaps similar, knowing that they haven't got an offer before the exams (even conditional) can motivate students to try harder to meet the grade boundaries
YESSSS PLEAASSE.

Our school is very special, and thats not in a good way.

We need 90-92% in raw marks not old style UMS for A*s, havent changed with the exams.

Other schools dish out predictions even a grade higher, not fair at all, especially due to variance...

Very few got the predictions they needed
Original post by Samanthaplague
I think that universities should introduce the basic admissions tests (e.g. the ones that test critical thinking or just skills that are needed for university study in general) and then interview like 80-90% of the candidates (depending on their scores within the admissions tests) and then make the offers on the results day depending on the actual grades as well as performance on interviews. I think that this could be quite effective as: every one gets a chance to demonstrate their personalities to the tutors, it doesn't restrict university options and can make people work harder to increase their chances on results day, it gets candidates to focus on developing skills for university through the tests rather than just focussing on getting the grades. Also, for me, there is nothing worse than getting a conditional offer from your dream university and then finding out that all your efforts from the selection process were a waste, whilst this method is perhaps similar, knowing that they haven't got an offer before the exams (even conditional) can motivate students to try harder to meet the grade boundaries


The University of Manchester gets 63,000 undergraduate applicants a year. Manchester Met gets 53,000. Salford receives 34,000.

That is 140,000 applicants in total. If you are interviewing 90%, where in Manchester do you find the facilities to interview 122,000 people?

By way of contrast Oxbridge gets 37,000 between them.

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