Brecon and Radnor by-election on Thursday Watch

Fullofsurprises
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#21
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#21
(Original post by ColinDent)
Or maybe they could come up with a radical plan, I'm sure that the great business minds can come up with better ideas than me but here's one for a starter, instead of slaughtering all those sheep how about just lowering the price to make it more affordable.
You mean below the price that the farmers need? Who will make up the difference - will the taxpayer have to permanently fund the sheep-rearing industry because the government is determined to bring in a Singapore economic model at any cost as an ideological matter?

Of course, in reality, the Singapore model precludes any such subsidy, so the sheep industry will go to hell in a handbasket and Boris won't give a flying ****, no matter how many sheep he's is photographed with.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...ssian-roulette
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nulli tertius
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#22
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
You mean below the price that the farmers need? Who will make up the difference - will the taxpayer have to permanently fund the sheep-rearing industry because the government is determined to bring in a Singapore economic model at any cost as an ideological matter?

Of course, in reality, the Singapore model precludes any such subsidy, so the sheep industry will go to hell in a handbasket and Boris won't give a flying ****, no matter how many sheep he's is photographed with.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...ssian-roulette
Back in the day, the Common Market had a beef mountain, a butter mountain and a wine lake of produce for which there was no market which was bought by Brussels at "intervention" prices. One of Thatcher, Kohl and Mitterand's great achievements was to eliminate them.

Boris has decided that Brexit Britain needs a mutton mountain.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...mers-bx5pnx9qq
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Fullofsurprises
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#23
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#23
(Original post by nulli tertius)
Back in the day, the Common Market had a beef mountain, a butter mountain and a wine lake of produce for which there was no market which was bought by Brussels at "intervention" prices. One of Thatcher, Kohl and Mitterand's great achievements was to eliminate them.

Boris has decided that Brexit Britain needs a mutton mountain.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...mers-bx5pnx9qq
We do seem to be entering dafter and dafter waters with each passing day.

This will doubtless be funded from the same magic money tree. There was a very amusing moment on Radio 4 news today when they were interviewing Jim O'Neill (the guy who invented the BRICS concept, a very distinguished City economist) and he compared the current government's attitudes to the £ and to fiscal and monetary policies as being very similar to those of the old Italian Lira and the Argentinian Peso.
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ColinDent
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#24
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#24
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
You mean below the price that the farmers need? Who will make up the difference - will the taxpayer have to permanently fund the sheep-rearing industry because the government is determined to bring in a Singapore economic model at any cost as an ideological matter?

Of course, in reality, the Singapore model precludes any such subsidy, so the sheep industry will go to hell in a handbasket and Boris won't give a flying ****, no matter how many sheep he's is photographed with.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...ssian-roulette
Well it would be better than just slaughtering them and having to burn the carcasses, I would imagine that they would lose a damn sight less if they were to lower the price.
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imlikeahermit
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#25
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This will be a very interesting result to all parties, will give the lay of the land so to speak, in a seat which should you would think remain conservative.

I have no doubt that the idiots in the brexit party will run, and will do undoubtedly better than some other parties. Issue is, they have one goal. Brexit. You want brexit, you vote for the brexit party. If you want remain who do you vote for? Most likely labour, however this isn’t a labour strong seat.
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Fullofsurprises
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#26
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
This will be a very interesting result to all parties, will give the lay of the land so to speak, in a seat which should you would think remain conservative.

I have no doubt that the idiots in the brexit party will run, and will do undoubtedly better than some other parties. Issue is, they have one goal. Brexit. You want brexit, you vote for the brexit party. If you want remain who do you vote for? Most likely labour, however this isn’t a labour strong seat.
Brexit are running - their candidate is Des Parkinson.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_B...s_and_campaign

UKIP only got 576 votes in the previous election in the seat, so they have everything to play for. I suspect the main effect of a Brexit Party vote there will be to let the LibDems in, but we'll see.
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Rakas21
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#27
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Perhaps the Brexit sheep megacull will be an issue in Brecon & Radnorshire.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/ne...ingency-39-mp/

Around 40% of British sheep go to export and of those, 96% arrive in the EU. If we go into Boris's Hard Brexit, there will be EU quotas on those, meaning they won't be sold, so huge numbers will have to be slaughtered.
Like many of your liberal elite remainers perhaps you should profit from your emotionalism and short Lamb futures.
(Original post by ColinDent)
Or maybe they could come up with a radical plan, I'm sure that the great business minds can come up with better ideas than me but here's one for a starter, instead of slaughtering all those sheep how about just lowering the price to make it more affordable.
Thanks to widespread farming subsidies across the EU, its barely profitable to farm.

More likely they'll just dump lamb onto the British market at whatever price the supermarkets will take it to recoup what they can.
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Fullofsurprises
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#28
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#28
(Original post by Rakas21)
Like many of your liberal elite remainers perhaps you should profit from your emotionalism and short Lamb futures.

Thanks to widespread farming subsidies across the EU, its barely profitable to farm.

More likely they'll just dump lamb onto the British market at whatever price the supermarkets will take it to recoup what they can.
There are lamb futures? :awesome: What do they consist of? Bits of mutton snuck into exchange traded instruments?

You absurdly simplify the position re: subsidies. The EU runs a protectionist farming policy, subsidies and all, because the smaller European fields and less completely, overwhelmingly industrialised agribusiness models would otherwise be destroyed in an instant by the superfarms of the US, Canada and Brazil. Personally I prefer our nice British and European cheeses to the GM chemicalised alternatives about to be forced down our throats as part of the post-Hard Brexit trade 'deal' with the US. (Eg, we take every US product, they take Scotch Whisky at a heavy discount.)
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ColinDent
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#29
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
There are lamb futures? :awesome: What do they consist of? Bits of mutton snuck into exchange traded instruments?

You absurdly simplify the position re: subsidies. The EU runs a protectionist farming policy, subsidies and all, because the smaller European fields and less completely, overwhelmingly industrialised agribusiness models would otherwise be destroyed in an instant by the superfarms of the US, Canada and Brazil. Personally I prefer our nice British and European cheeses to the GM chemicalised alternatives about to be forced down our throats as part of the post-Hard Brexit trade 'deal' with the US. (Eg, we take every US product, they take Scotch Whisky at a heavy discount.)
The lamb futures depend where they are, anywhere near me and it will consist of a very hot place and some mint sauce, in Wales it consists of large hairy farmers and nights under the stars.
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Fullofsurprises
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#30
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#30
(Original post by ColinDent)
The lamb futures depend where they are, anywhere near me and it will consist of a very hot place and some mint sauce, in Wales it consists of large hairy farmers and nights under the stars.
Lol, I had no idea Futures could be so, well, er, rural.
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barnetlad
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#31
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
There are lamb futures? :awesome: What do they consist of? Bits of mutton snuck into exchange traded instruments?

You absurdly simplify the position re: subsidies. The EU runs a protectionist farming policy, subsidies and all, because the smaller European fields and less completely, overwhelmingly industrialised agribusiness models would otherwise be destroyed in an instant by the superfarms of the US, Canada and Brazil. Personally I prefer our nice British and European cheeses to the GM chemicalised alternatives about to be forced down our throats as part of the post-Hard Brexit trade 'deal' with the US. (Eg, we take every US product, they take Scotch Whisky at a heavy discount.)
You mean a trade deal negotiated on our behalf by the UK Prime Minister who until four years ago held US citizenship?
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Fullofsurprises
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#32
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(Original post by barnetlad)
You mean a trade deal negotiated on our behalf by the UK Prime Minister who until four years ago held US citizenship?
Yes, I mean that guy, the one who Trump says he likes. Trump tends to like people he can walk all over.
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nulli tertius
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#33
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(Original post by barnetlad)
You mean a trade deal negotiated on our behalf by the UK Prime Minister who until four years ago held US citizenship?
That will give him all he needs to negotiate a trade deal with the same skill he demonstrated over his personal tax affairs.

https://www.artiopartners.com/renoun...-irs-tax-bill/
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Fullofsurprises
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#34
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#34
(Original post by nulli tertius)
That will give him all he needs to negotiate a trade deal with the same skill he demonstrated over his personal tax affairs.

https://www.artiopartners.com/renoun...-irs-tax-bill/
They don't like it up 'em.
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Fullofsurprises
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#35
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#35
Farmers are threatening Boris with mass civil unrest over Hard Brexit.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/p...ssage-16666928

This didn't go well for Blair last time it happened - which was over surging fuel prices, something likely to happen again soon if the pound doesn't recover or continues to fall.
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Rakas21
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#36
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Farmers are threatening Boris with mass civil unrest over Hard Brexit.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/p...ssage-16666928

This didn't go well for Blair last time it happened - which was over surging fuel prices, something likely to happen again soon if the pound doesn't recover or continues to fall.
As excited as some of the left will get at this idea, it is a politically motivated union threatening this rather than ordinary farmers. I suspect the Tories would like nothing more than Scargill 2.0.
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Fullofsurprises
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#37
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(Original post by Rakas21)
As excited as some of the left will get at this idea, it is a politically motivated union threatening this rather than ordinary farmers. I suspect the Tories would like nothing more than Scargill 2.0.
It will be intriguing to see if the new highs in fuel prices about to hit will cause troubles. The anti-Blair protests that farmers led back in the 2000s were independent actions by small local groups, although there were apparently suspicions at the time that they were led by Kippers.
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Burton Bridge
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#38
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Back to topic, I'm really excited to see what happens tomorrow. This is key constituency being a more or less tory safe seat and a leave one too boot.

We have seen the Labour vote scrap by in lab/tory marginal with the tory vote being reduced too insignificance, this by election will paint a story of what could happen. I don't think the Liberals will win it, even with the rarther undemocratic scheming of the remain campaign but if they do.... It could be bad news for democracy as political game play will explode
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Rakas21
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#39
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#39
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
It will be intriguing to see if the new highs in fuel prices about to hit will cause troubles. The anti-Blair protests that farmers led back in the 2000s were independent actions by small local groups, although there were apparently suspicions at the time that they were led by Kippers.
With Sterling already depreciating ahead of time slowly the collapse in no deal will be muted a little, as will any sudden rise in fuel prices. In addition, we are not looking at stonking rises so I doubt we will see protests.
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Fullofsurprises
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#40
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(Original post by Rakas21)
With Sterling already depreciating ahead of time slowly the collapse in no deal will be muted a little, as will any sudden rise in fuel prices. In addition, we are not looking at stonking rises so I doubt we will see protests.
The £ is heading towards losing another 1% today already - not sure we've seen the bottom yet. The rises could be quite acute and will kick in during the next few weeks. Brent Crude is already pushing back up, although I agree it's nowhere near the highs of last year as yet.
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