North Shropshire by-election

Agree that I don't get the Truss appeal. She's the darling of the party because she got the prominent role it's difficult to fail at. Short of saying in advance that you'll get 100 trade agreements you can't really fail at it. Foreign is also a relatively easy role of you can avoid a warzone. Even Raab was not unpopular pre-Afghanistan. Though I'm not sure being neutral is a bad thing if the starting point is an 80 seat majority.

Hunt is a much more competent Truss I think. After the Murdoch affair made him look corrupt I'd find it difficult to vote though.

Javid I agree. He's monotone. Worst of the bunch.

Sunak I agree, he'd win with the parliamentary party and country convincingly. He has almost no idealogical grounding but is probably much more competent. Blair with a blue tie and brown face.

Raab and Patel I'm not sure I agree with you on. As Brexit has shown there is a large constituency outside London for social conservatism and serving in a Boris government, I doubt either of them are truly commited Thatcherites economically. They'd be polarising but I tend to think right now that if the vote polarises it probably favours the Tories over Labour. There are more than 29 seats where the Brx Party vote exceeds the lab majority over con and those are disproportionately small c votes (though winning that battle relies on lab and lib staying split in the more liberal southern areas). Like Hunt I'd struggle to vote for Patel though given her actions in Israel.

I suspect Sunak will win in R1 though amongst the MP's sadly.

Johnson out. He has to go. For the sake of what is left of the ‘Conservative’ party. Sunak in.

I think Sunak by all accounts is pretty Camerony, apart from Brexit. Young, modern, socially liberal, fiscally conservative, a bit environmenty. Probably much more relaxed about immigration and culture wars than other tories.

Re Raab and Patel, I'm not saying that social conservatism has no appeal but rather I'm not sure either of them is capable. They aren't political heavyweights with grand visions like Thatcher. And both are quite gaffe prone. Neither are particularly charismatic either.

I'm not sure I understand why people think Rishi is fiscally conservative. The governments current economic plan is effectively anti-austerity. Even before the pandemic they were budgetting large spending increases and greater deficits.

As for Raab and Patel, I'll add that the public don't seem to like them. I've seen a couple of pretty scathing articles in the Mail about Patel, in particular.

I'm not sure I understand why people think Rishi is fiscally conservative. The governments current economic plan is effectively anti-austerity. Even before the pandemic they were budgetting large spending increases and greater deficits.

As for Raab and Patel, I'll add that the public don't seem to like them. I've seen a couple of pretty scathing articles in the Mail about Patel, in particular.

Presumably because she's not been able to do much about the boats coming in.

Probably because she is being stymied by Boris and the civil service. Right now she's doing all she can, if she was in power she could scrap the HRA et al and take more brutal measures

Patel appears utterly ineffective. That is because rather than very publicly doing things which are within her power to control, she has almost exclusively devoted her efforts to things that she has virtually no ability to improve. You then end up with a constant media narrative of failure.

In terms of the actual by election, I think it could be a sign that Brexit is fading as an issue. Yes it was a protest vote to an extenr, but the fact that leaver voters were willing to vote for a party that two years ago campaigned to rejoin the EU, is a sign that Brexit is done as an electoral issue.

Maybe, I'm not sure how much voters were thinking about that when they voted, but on the face of it, you're right.

What does seem plausible now is that we're seeing a definite trend of middle class rural and suburban voters rejecting Tory extremism and perhaps Brexit along with it, or at least, the Brexit we've been given. It's noticeable that Frost and Johnson and Patel dialled back the anti-French rhetoric in the run-up to the by-election. Maybe they've realised it doesn't play very well in the Shires.

In terms of the actual by election, I think it could be a sign that Brexit is fading as an issue. Yes it was a protest vote to an extenr, but the fact that leaver voters were willing to vote for a party that two years ago campaigned to rejoin the EU, is a sign that Brexit is done as an electoral issue.

Yes brexit is done. Now the debate is or should really be about 3/4s of the "conservative" party and the "opposition" basically being lockstep on being an anarcho tyranny.

Brexit was just the beginning. As we are seeing, Boris et Al is little better than messrs Juncker and Merkel.

Brexit was the glue that held the fragile tory voting coalition together (plus a fear of Corbyn). With those two factors gone, the Tories need to find something else.

Personally I don't think the public here are desparate for a US style culture war, and I don't think it would work anyway. "anti wokeness" just like "wokeness" isn't going to win an election. Bread and butter issues such as the economy, healthcare, education, housing etc are still far more important.

Agreed... Although only because things haven't quite yet devolved to how things are in the US for various reasons. Things need to get worse before people are ready to get rid of the status quo sadly.

That said I disagree that culture war issues aren't popular.

I think if a Tory candidate went hard on free speech, trans issues and border crossings for instance they could do quite well, particularly among the northern Seats they're allegedly after.

It would have some appeal, but it would be quite limited. Remember, most people haven't heard the term 'woke'. To a large extent it's a social media, bubble issue.

If the Tories go into an election primarily focused on being 'anti woke' and Labour focus on bread and butter issues, the latter will win.

They don't need to have heard of wokeism, really a misnomer, to be against anti white curriculum for children or the trans bathrooms etc.

It depends. Not necessarily. Although I agree that shouldn't be all the Tory party should offer. I think it would be a net benefit. Even liberal lefties think this stuff has gone too far.

Yes brexit is done. Now the debate is or should really be about 3/4s of the "conservative" party and the "opposition" basically being lockstep on being an anarcho tyranny.

Brexit was just the beginning. As we are seeing, Boris et Al is little better than messrs Juncker and Merkel.

It depends what we mean by 'woke' exactly. I wouldn't include things like Brexit or crime etc within that scope as they are substantive policy areas.

But the debates around 'defund the BBC', racist potatoes, and 'critical race theory' and trans bathrooms etc almost exclusively exist on social media.

The BBC is a classic example. The Tory party have absolutely convinced themselves that the public hates the BBC and everyone thinks its some far left/liberal organisation that hates Britain etc. The reality is most people quite like the BBC even most Tory voters and Brexit voters.

Labour's best bet is to sidestep the culture war issues, and let the tories convince themselves that the public en masse care about them.

It depends what we mean by 'woke' exactly. I wouldn't include things like Brexit or crime etc within that scope as they are substantive policy areas.

But the debates around 'defund the BBC', racist potatoes, and 'critical race theory' and trans bathrooms etc almost exclusively exist on social media.

The BBC is a classic example. The Tory party have absolutely convinced themselves that the public hates the BBC and everyone thinks its some far left/liberal organisation that hates Britain etc. The reality is most people quite like the BBC even most Tory voters and Brexit voters.

Labour's best bet is to sidestep the culture war issues,

and let the tories convince themselves that the public en masse care about them.