North Shropshire by-election

It's the North Shropshire by-election tomorrow. It will be interesting to see what impact the leaked video about partying at No 10 (against the PM's denials that it ever happened) will make. Some are predicting an earthquake LibDem win. That would take some doing - it's one of the safest Tory seats in the country.

Last election the results were:

Conservative Owen Paterson 35,444
Labour Graeme Currie 12,495
Liberal Democrats Helen Morgan 5,643
Green John Adams 1,790

(edited 2 years ago)

Reply 3

username5842617

12

I'm not holding my breath but a Tory defeat means one less supporter in the House of Commons of a man I would like to see imprisoned (Boris Johnson).

Reply 4

Saracen's Fez

OP

Original post by Fullofsurprises

It's the North Shropshire by-election tomorrow. It will be interesting to see what impact the leaked video about partying at No 10 (against the PM's denials that it ever happened) will make. Some are predicting an earthquake LibDem win. That would take some doing - it's one of the safest Tory seats in the country.

Last election the results were:

Conservative Owen Paterson 35,444
Labour Graeme Currie 12,495
Liberal Democrats Helen Morgan 5,643
Green John Adams 1,790

If you're planning to stay up, you might be disappointed as it's actually on the 16th! :tongue:

If the Lib Dems do win, this would be a hammer blow orders of magnitude bigger than Chesham and Amersham. There was a logic to a Lib Dem win in C&A, it's in suburban Remainia in the London commuter belt and the LDs had been targeting it to some degree for a few years. North Shropshire is about as shire Tory as you can get and voted Leave. There's no reason why the Lib Dems should win, and they came a distant third in 2019.

Reply 5

Rakas21

Poor polling at the moment for the Tories and the 'build more houses but not here' lib Dem's are no doubt going hard.

It would be unexpected but not surprising if they took the seat.

Reply 6

I'd class it as a bit of an earthquake. It would show tremendous dissatisfaction with Johnson. As it stands, I suspect the Tories will hold it but with a substantial reduction in majority.

Reply 7

04MR17

Volunteer Section Leader

22

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/local-hubs/north-shropshire/2021/11/17/north-shropshire-by-election-monster-raving-loony-party-throws-its-hat-into-the-ring/

The Monster Raving Loony have my support :blow:

Reply 8

Original post by 04MR17

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/local-hubs/north-shropshire/2021/11/17/north-shropshire-by-election-monster-raving-loony-party-throws-its-hat-into-the-ring/

The Monster Raving Loony have my support :blow:

Apparently the LibDems are now the favourites in the betting.

Reply 9

Labour have moved definitely ahead of the Tories in national polling. 38-34 %.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1468640320074223616

Reply 10

Saracen's Fez

OP

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Apparently the LibDems are now the favourites in the betting.

I was party to a conversation about this between some Lib Dem friends earlier: with by-elections not being the largest betting markets about, apparently party members make a point of betting on the Lib Dems, specifically to shorten the odds so they can get headlines and put them on their leaflets! :lol:

(That said, when did the Lib Dems start caring about whether what was on their leaflets was truthful? :getmecoat:

)

(edited 2 years ago)

Reply 11

Original post by Saracen's Fez

I was party to a conversation about this between some Lib Dem friends earlier: with by-elections not being the largest betting markets about, apparently party members make a point of betting on the Lib Dems, specifically to shorten the odds so they can get headlines and put them on their leaflets! :lol:

(That said, when did the Lib Dems start caring about whether what was on their leaflets was truthful? :getmecoat:

)

Ha, I didn't realise that was possible. Seems like other parties could play that game too.

I don't think the seat will stop being Tory, but if it does, Johnson is probably in danger of being replaced pretty soon.

Reply 12

SHallowvale

14

I think it'll be a Tory hold but at a reduced majority. It's been a Conservative stronghold for the last 20 years, probably even longer, so I don't think the recent scandals are going to affect it much.

Reply 13

Rakas21

Canvass returns suggest that the Tories have held the seat from the Lib Dem's (so far).

(edited 2 years ago)

Reply 14

nulli tertius

Original post by Rakas21

Canvass returns suggest that the Tories have held the seat from the Lib Dem's (so far).

Is that the Liberal canvass or the Tory one?

Canvass returns have a strong home advantage.

Reply 15

Original post by Rakas21

Canvass returns suggest that the Tories have held the seat from the Lib Dem's (so far).

With Labour apparently 9 points ahead in national polling, people in N Shrops who don't want the Tories might be better off casting their tactical vote to Lab rather than the LibDems. After all they came second last time with LD on less than half the Lab vote.

Reply 16

SHallowvale

14

Original post by Fullofsurprises

With Labour apparently 9 points ahead in national polling, people in N Shrops who don't want the Tories might be better off casting their tactical vote to Lab rather than the LibDems. After all they came second last time with LD on less than half the Lab vote.

Indeed. I'm surprised how much attention the Lib Dems are getting for this election. Labour have almost always come second in North Shropshire, the only exception being in 2010.

Anyone betting for this election? The odds for a Conservative victory look pretty rewarding. 😂

Reply 17

Original post by SHallowvale

Indeed. I'm surprised how much attention the Lib Dems are getting for this election. Labour have almost always come second in North Shropshire, the only exception being in 2010.

Anyone betting for this election? The odds for a Conservative victory look pretty rewarding. 😂

Yeah I saw 6/4 on the Tory candidate, tempting but I'm not going to risk it as it does feel like a big upset is on the way there. I suppose the theory is that traditional Tory voters won't go all the way across to Lab but would be prepared to vote LibDem. After the Coalition government, I find it hard to see the difference between them.

Reply 18

Rakas21