Do you consider UKIP good or bad?
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Original post by geokinkladze
No, they're in the north because they are closer to the north poll than Bristol or Leicester for example, which are also cities but aren't in the north and aren't Labour Heartland seats.
So you think the heartlands are cities? So in between Liverpool and Manchester.. in the areas commonly referred to as Merseyside, Lancashire and Greater Manchester. The people that live in those (non city) areas, why do they historically vote Labour?
These areas commonly have little to do with any nearby Cities. Leigh for example is smack bang in the middle of Manchester and Liverpoool. It has one direct bus route to Manchester (it has another bus route that winds it's way via other towns). It has no bus route to Liverpool. It is in effect a series of small districts surrounded by farmland. It consistently votes Labour as does the nearby town of Wigan and the surrounding townships. Why? It's very simple really if you no anything about these towns and their history. The same can be said more generally for other northern towns.
People can link to polls all they want.. but I prefer to look at actual results. The nearest by election to these towns is Pemberton in 2013..
Look at those results:
http://www.englishelections.org.uk/england/lby/northwest/pemberton.php
So you think the heartlands are cities? So in between Liverpool and Manchester.. in the areas commonly referred to as Merseyside, Lancashire and Greater Manchester. The people that live in those (non city) areas, why do they historically vote Labour?
These areas commonly have little to do with any nearby Cities. Leigh for example is smack bang in the middle of Manchester and Liverpoool. It has one direct bus route to Manchester (it has another bus route that winds it's way via other towns). It has no bus route to Liverpool. It is in effect a series of small districts surrounded by farmland. It consistently votes Labour as does the nearby town of Wigan and the surrounding townships. Why? It's very simple really if you no anything about these towns and their history. The same can be said more generally for other northern towns.
People can link to polls all they want.. but I prefer to look at actual results. The nearest by election to these towns is Pemberton in 2013..
Look at those results:
http://www.englishelections.org.uk/england/lby/northwest/pemberton.php
If that's the one set of results I commented on above, see those comments, otherwise, do election results now count as polls and not actual results?
I'm sat here flicking through all the elections since Feb 74, which have a coded map, on Wikipedia and the same trends are still there: largely the towns and cities in the north that are red (or yellow) and mostly blue in the rural areas.
Oh, and what a surprise, jump on to Google Earth and that big red blob in the middle of the maps is mostly built up
Oh, what a surprise, I know York Central is red but outer is blue, the urban bit red, rural blue. What's that? Hull is red but the surrounding area is blue. There is one major exceptionm and that is when you get up around Newcastle, Middlesbrough, Durham. There the surrounding rural constituencies are red, but then again the North East is one of the poorest parts of the country, IIRC only NI is poorer.
In fact, the same is true in the south, not to the same extent though (currently on the 92 map admittedly). The urban areas of the midlands are red, the rest blue, some of the cities in the east are red (surprised P'bro isn't, but IIRC it wasn't a distinct seat then, spanned some borders) the rural is blue. Yes, on the whole the urban areas are more likely to be blue, but the trernds still hold, just more loosely.
Scotland, Edinburgh, Glasgow, [half of] Aberdeen, all red, some of the surrounding areas of the two larger cities also red. Go rural and it's mostly LD or Con.
Wales, the urban area in the south, red, the rural areas, mostly the other parties.
But let's stop looking at 1992 and look at 2010. oh, wait, you can barely tell the two apart! Okay, that's a bit of an exageration, but all the same trends are holding, except on Scotland, and there is more LD scattered about.
Original post by geokinkladze
You believe in national swing? Are you still in the 90's?
Given that we're talking about a party that will, if it's lucky, win half a dozen seats and their influence is on where their votes come from, the bigger picture is relevant. And then when the two main parties are roughly neck and neck in the popular vote it seems sufficient. Particularly given that the data would suggest that if the stats are manipulated correctly looking at a national swing gives good predictions. Your example, for example, when you throw some weighting in given that Labour was 8x the size of con to begin with, with some just rough estimations, not actually going through all the calculations by hand, fits.
Original post by DIN-NARYU-FARORE
No
name these countries and notice how they make massive concessions to the EU despite not being a part of it. Uk only has its service reputation and technological innovation to fall back on get rid of EU and manufacturing and other non service industries will grind to a halt
name these countries and notice how they make massive concessions to the EU despite not being a part of it. Uk only has its service reputation and technological innovation to fall back on get rid of EU and manufacturing and other non service industries will grind to a halt
I work in manufacturing and engineering the EU is a massive burden on my employer and competitors from waste to recruitment. They're are plenty of people out of work yet companies are still bringing in EU labour? Why because its basic supply and demand, overloading the labour market to drive down wages and employment terms. The left have abandoned this industry just like fishing ect. There was a walkout at lindsey oil refinery because new work was given to a Portuguese contractor under EU directives 600 jobs, the left wing didnt want to touch it tho for fear of looking like little englanders. Labour have abandoned the working class which is why shed loads of the working class have shipped over to UKIP where they won't be called racists for bringing up legitimate immigration worries.
To answer your question, Bad! but then again the "big 3" are just as worst. Simply put they don't represent the people, they represent themselves and the super wealthy.
History shows that regardless of what major event that alters the course of the UK whether that be socially, economically, law, free-speech, environmentally, or politically, the tax-payers are ordered to clear up the mess that could potentially be worth Millions of pounds and the wealthy get away from it.
History shows that regardless of what major event that alters the course of the UK whether that be socially, economically, law, free-speech, environmentally, or politically, the tax-payers are ordered to clear up the mess that could potentially be worth Millions of pounds and the wealthy get away from it.
Original post by geokinkladze
PLAN. How does more income help you PLAN?
More money for more places doesn't help you plan?
You know when you go shopping - do you find it easier to 'plan' what you are buying when you have more or less money?
Original post by geokinkladze
PLAN. How does more income help you PLAN?
And tbf, how to they plan for birthrate?
Original post by Jammy Duel
largely the towns and cities in the north that are red (or yellow) and mostly blue in the rural areas.....
....There the surrounding rural constituencies are red, but then again the North East is one of the poorest parts of the country, IIRC only NI is poorer.
....There the surrounding rural constituencies are red, but then again the North East is one of the poorest parts of the country, IIRC only NI is poorer.
Yes like I said, THE NORTH. And if you count up votes from city constituencies vs those from none city constituencies you'll find the non-cities outnumber the cities.
You glibly mention that areas between the cities vote red as if it supports your argument. I claim it doesn't.
As I have pointed out, people from areas between the cities have nothing to do with the cities that they lay between. They do have a past though.. and all those pasts have a connection.
Original post by Smonnie
More money for more places doesn't help you plan?
You know when you go shopping - do you find it easier to 'plan' what you are buying when you have more or less money?
You know when you go shopping - do you find it easier to 'plan' what you are buying when you have more or less money?
It makes no difference, the plan is based on how much money I have.
Original post by Smonnie
And tbf, how to they plan for birthrate?
It's ok to admit you don't know how Local Authorities plan for school places.
But believe me, they do. It's not just birthrate (birthrate, if you think about it, gives them 5 years to plan). There are also such things as new housing developments to consider.
LEA's put a lot of work into planning, they have it down to a fine art form. Uncontrolled migration, however, is the factor they can't plan for.
Original post by Leeds98
I work in manufacturing and engineering the EU is a massive burden on my employer and competitors from waste to recruitment. They're are plenty of people out of work yet companies are still bringing in EU labour? Why because its basic supply and demand, overloading the labour market to drive down wages and employment terms. The left have abandoned this industry just like fishing ect. There was a walkout at lindsey oil refinery because new work was given to a Portuguese contractor under EU directives 600 jobs, the left wing didnt want to touch it tho for fear of looking like little englanders. Labour have abandoned the working class which is why shed loads of the working class have shipped over to UKIP where they won't be called racists for bringing up legitimate immigration worries.
This is what I'm hearing all the time. It seems nobody wants to listen to people like you. I guess they'll be listening after the election.
Original post by InnerTemple
In any event, the result is the same... Farage does want to see an end to laws which outlaw racial discrimination.
Whilst it was fine for Labour to amend laws so ethnic minorities could be favoured over whites/British applicants, without it being classed as discrimination?
Discrimination is illegal- oh unless its to ****-over white, British people..... then we'll call it "positive discrimination" because its positive for natives of a country to be overlooked for jobs.....
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by democracyforum
what cameron can do is this :
give an immediate referendum,
if UKIP agree to pull out all their candidates and withdraw from the election
He could end it now, and gain 15 per cent of the vote.
give an immediate referendum,
if UKIP agree to pull out all their candidates and withdraw from the election
He could end it now, and gain 15 per cent of the vote.
He cannot give an immediate referendum because Labour and Limp Dems would vote it down.....
Or did you mean immediate if they get in? I doubt it, Farage doesn't trust him.
Original post by geokinkladze
Most people who tell me they would consider voting UKIP would have voted Labour most, if not all their lives.
I think the UKIP effect on Labour is being seriously underestimated by some. The effect on Tories are in Tory heartlands.. they are hardly going to swing to Labour. Labour probably won't finish second in such seats never mind first.
However in Northern seats, Labour heartlands, UKIP have already come a strong second at by elections.
I think the UKIP effect on Labour is being seriously underestimated by some. The effect on Tories are in Tory heartlands.. they are hardly going to swing to Labour. Labour probably won't finish second in such seats never mind first.
However in Northern seats, Labour heartlands, UKIP have already come a strong second at by elections.
This. Spot on.
A few Labour heartlands are starting to realise what Labour's immigration policy did to this country.
Original post by geokinkladze
Yes like I said, THE NORTH. And if you count up votes from city constituencies vs those from none city constituencies you'll find the non-cities outnumber the cities.
You glibly mention that areas between the cities vote red as if it supports your argument. I claim it doesn't.
As I have pointed out, people from areas between the cities have nothing to do with the cities that they lay between. They do have a past though.. and all those pasts have a connection.
You glibly mention that areas between the cities vote red as if it supports your argument. I claim it doesn't.
As I have pointed out, people from areas between the cities have nothing to do with the cities that they lay between. They do have a past though.. and all those pasts have a connection.
I propose you go and look at the population distribution of the UK, according to the 2011 census you are VERY wrong, for England and Wales:
Urban, 45,726,291, 81.5%
Major conurbation, 18,783,742, 33.5%
Minor conurbation, 1,906,101, 3.4%
City and town- Total, 25,036,448, 44.6%
In a non-sparse setting, 24,890,130, 44.4%
In a sparse setting, 146,318, 0.3%
Rural, 10,349,624, 18.5%
Town and fringe- Total, 5,140,355, 9.2%
non-sparse, 4,844,185, 8.6%
sparse, 296,170, 0.5%
Village- Total, 3,245,156, 5.8%
non-sparse, 2,943,043, 5.2%
sparse, 302,113, 0.5%
Hamlets and isolated dwellings-Total, 1,964,110, 3.5%
non-sparse, 1,714,121, 3.1%
sparse, 249,989, 0.4%
Total, 56,075,912, 100%
What were you saying? Almost twice as many people live in Major conurbations (I assume that's going to be Greater London, the West Midlands Conurbation and Greater Manchester, and I think maybe the West Yorkshire Urban Area, possibly Liverpool built up area too) as live in rural areas. The difficulty with those stats is it doesn't differentiate city from town, which is relevant since a lot of towns will have enough rural population to swing it to be Tory while the cities and larger towns won't.
Now, we have 36.9% Conurbation, so let's now add some cities that are [probably] excluded, all we need to get merely the CITY figure to half the population is another 13.1%, 7.3m
So, Shefield, 550k
Bristol, 420k
Leicester, 330k
Coventry, 320k
Nottingham, 310k
Newcastle (might be in the minor conurbation figure), 280k
Sunderland, 280k
Brighton and Hove, 270k
Kingdton upon Hull, 260k
Stoke on Trent, 250k
Derby, 250k
Soton, 240k
Salford, 230k
Portsmouth, 210k
York, 200k
P'bro, 180k
Chelmsford, 170k
Oxford, 150k
Canterbury, 150k
Preston, 140k
Lancaster, 140k
Norwich, 130k
Cambridge, 120k
Gloucester, 120k
Exeter, 120k
Winchester, 120k
Carlisle, 110k
Cardiff, 350k
Swansea, 240k
Newport, 150k
Which leaves us about half a million short, but I really cba listing another half a dozen or so minor cities
The other thing you could do is look at the list of Uk connurbations (Which goes all the way down to Worchester at 101,659) and that totals in the region of 28m, again, half the population, and that can't be the right figure because it has the York built up smaller than York
Original post by billydisco
He cannot give an immediate referendum because Labour and Limp Dems would vote it down.....
Or did you mean immediate if they get in? I doubt it, Farage doesn't trust him.
Or did you mean immediate if they get in? I doubt it, Farage doesn't trust him.
Well, the immediate referendum would be on the condition of a majority, which may well be reasonable without UKIP in the picture. Obviously, the problem with an immediate referendum is the process which the Tories want to take, you can't call a referendum asking whether the renegotiated relationship is good enough before you renegotiate.
Original post by Jammy Duel
Well, the immediate referendum would be on the condition of a majority, which may well be reasonable without UKIP in the picture. Obviously, the problem with an immediate referendum is the process which the Tories want to take, you can't call a referendum asking whether the renegotiated relationship is good enough before you renegotiate.
Even an idiot knows there'll be no change of heart from the EU- theyarent going to allow the UK to have different immigration rules to everyone else.....
Original post by billydisco
Even an idiot knows there'll be no change of heart from the EU- theyarent going to allow the UK to have different immigration rules to everyone else.....
The problem isn't that, it's that to change the rules requires unanimous support, and the Eastern Europeans won't agree to changing the rules.
Original post by Jammy Duel
I propose you go and look at the population distribution of the UK, according to the 2011 census you are VERY wrong, for England and Wales
Not really, as long as you know what City constituencies are. I mean you aren't counting those stretches BETWEEN the cities as Cities are you?
Original post by Jammy Duel
I assume that's going to be Greater London, the West Midlands Conurbation and Greater Manchester, and I think maybe the West Yorkshire Urban Area, possibly Liverpool built up area too) as live in rural areas.
Oh, yes you are. You probably don't know the difference between an area like Greater Manchester and something like " Liverpool built up area too". By that do you mean Merseyside?
Let's face it.. you know sweet FA about the north, little about the history of labour and because of this you mange to go and confuse towns like Wigan & Leigh (in Greater Manchester, not Manchester) with cities like Manchester and Liverpool.
Original post by geokinkladze
Que? Reasons such as?
if an idiot were to say the army (im completely for women serving on the frontline) sexual discrimination could ostensibly be justified through physical strength differences.
Original post by Jammy Duel
What were you saying? Almost twice as many people live in Major conurbations (I assume that's going to be Greater London, the West Midlands Conurbation and Greater Manchester, and I think maybe the West Yorkshire Urban Area, possibly Liverpool built up area too) as live in rural areas.
I'll say it again and this time, hopefully, you will read my actual words. I'll tell you what I'll help you by highlighting important phrases so you don't get them wrong.
if you count up votes from city constituencies vs those from non-city constituencies you'll find the non-cities outnumber the cities
According to the UK definition of a city...City population is approximately 15million people. Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham are cities. Greater Manchester, Merseyside, the West Midlands are not.
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