North Shropshire by-election

I think it's fair to assume that the effect is less for a party surging upwards than it is for one going the other way. I agree it won't be an exact transfer of votes, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if ~10K Tory voters stayed at home yesterday.

LibDems will be trumpeting this as another turning point, but I suspect they have an awful lot of work to do in showing they aren't just another right wing party. Their coalition track record was awful. Clegg has revealed himself to be a despicable individual subsequently.

What makes something not a protest vote?

Protest vote. I doubt this signals a resurgence in the lib dem fortunes

That said it does show widespread dissatisfaction with the useless government. The Tories need to put Boris down and elect a proper conservative

No more green crap, high taxes and lockdowns. Start getting serious about immigration.

One thing occurs to me. What PL football club do folk from North Shropshire support Liverpool or Everton or one of the Manchester clubs? Boris still has a very severe Liverpool problem.

When it reflects a change in the political views of the electorate, a change in the political position of the candidates or parties or is a personal vote for a particular candidate.

I agree with Shadow that the distinction seems pretty weak. I'm not entirely convinced as to why a change in the political position of a party is a 'real' reason for changing one's vote, but a change in the public's perception of the party's competency is just a 'protest'. For one reason or another the electorate decided that the conservatives are not fit to represent them, and went with a different party.

This. Very heavy/high handed and hypocritical government, coupled with confused messaging, and it's not helping their performance. Labour is hardly any different, so not surprised who attracted the protest vote.

Is "Boris Johnson is not fit to lead the country" not a political view, though?

And if Boris makes it to the next GE and loses badly are we going to say it was a 'protest election'? Surely any vote could be construed as a 'protest' against whatever grievance the electorate happened to have at the time.

I agree with Shadow that the distinction seems pretty weak. I'm not entirely convinced as to why a change in the political position of a party is a 'real' reason for changing one's vote, but a change in the public's perception of the party's competency is just a 'protest'. For one reason or another the electorate decided that the conservatives are not fit to represent them, and went with a different party.

When it reflects a change in the political views of the electorate, a change in the political position of the candidates or parties or is a personal vote for a particular candidate.

There's always scepticism that the wilder by-election results will last, hence the convenience of dubbing them 'protest votes' - the obvious assumption being that the local electorate know that their vote in a by election won't change the government and they are therefore 'free' to be cantankerous. To be fair, a lot of LibDem by-election wins have subsequently returned to the original party at general election time, but not all.

What determines if these things have happened?

From the looks of it, it seems like the political opinions of North Shropshire voters have changed. You have interviews of life long Conservative voters having changed their opinion, no longer feeling that the party represents them or does a good job. If that isn't a "change in political views" then I don't know what is.

Is "Boris Johnson is not fit to lead the country" not a political view, though?

And if Boris makes it to the next GE and loses badly are we going to say it was a 'protest election'? Surely any vote could be construed as a 'protest' against whatever grievance the electorate happened to have at the time.

I agree with Shadow that the distinction seems pretty weak. I'm not entirely convinced as to why a change in the political position of a party is a 'real' reason for changing one's vote, but a change in the public's perception of the party's competency is just a 'protest'. For one reason or another the electorate decided that the conservatives are not fit to represent them, and went with a different party.

I'm enjoying the "voters hate the tories for being too Liberal so they voted for the Liberal Democrats" take.

Hindsight principally. Are local and general election results consistant with the old order or not.

Right, so as I said we can't really declare this as a protest vote until the next election. If this is just a fluke and the Conservative regain NS in 2024 then I think we can consider this a protest vote (assuming the Conservatives don't make massive gains in 2024).

I'm enjoying the "voters hate the tories for being too liberal so they voted for the Liberal Democrats" take.

Not I don't think so. This was a protest vote.

I think it does mean that student fees, entering the coalition and Brexit are all no longer on the average voters' lists of red flags. Politics has moved on. That is relevant for all parties. There is no mileage in complaining about what Thatcher, Blair or Cameron did.

However, John Redwood and our own Starship Trooper are not right. Whilst I would like a Tory leader who was actually a Conservative, this is irrelevant to what happened at the by-election. The Lib Dem woman could have campaigned on a policy of Farm Collectivisation, 24 hour Covid curfews and banning motor cars and she would have still won. The was about hubris, arrogance and sleaze.

The risk for the Conservatives is that Boris is now irrevocably tainted andthat it doesn't matter when the election is held. The risk is that if Boris is in charge, they will get a kicking from the public, regardless of anything else.

I'm enjoying the "voters hate the tories for being too liberal so they voted for the Liberal Democrats" take.

Given that most voters are basically centrist with mild inclinations to left or right, it is laughable that the radicalised extremists who now make up much of the Tory Party are interpreting this as a rejection of centrism. The electorate are taking time rumbling them (Johnson acted as a temporary figleaf for a more centrist approach) but I think the penny is now dropping that this is not the old and relatively safe Conservative Party but something else altogether.