"fewer than 10% of students have three correct predicted grades"

[Ucas] believes predicted grades are unreliable. Research conducted by Ucas for the government shows that just 52% of predicted grades are correct and fewer than 10% of students have three correct predicted grades.

Interesting statistics.

Reply 1

Potally_Tissed

19

Not hugely surprised. Would be interested to know what proportion are over-predicted and under-predicted though.

Reply 2

member520746

Not surprising at all with how many people come on TSR asking how they bully their teachers into predicting them an A* for no real reason

Reply 3

postman pat

10

I'm predicted AAAA but I'll probably get AABC.

I think schools should take more care when it comes to predicting grades. Maybe talk with the individual students and get their views.

Reply 4

Nymthae

16

Yeah, as above, i'd love to see how many are under/over-estimated. The general statistic doesn't hugely surprise me though.

Reply 5

coffee?

That's why admission tutors don't care as long as you are predicted the minimum entry grades.

Reply 6

ooerr

12

My AS predicted grades were ridiculous; they based them on some point system using GCSE grades.

They predicted i'd get BBBC and i actually got AAAB... (my predicted C was in physics and I ended up with an A)

After my AS grades though, they updated my predicted A levels which ended up about right (predicted i'd get AAA, got A*AA) so yeah, their accuracy can vary.

Reply 7

Nat400

Original post by postman pat

I'm predicted AAAA but I'll probably get AABC.

I think schools should take more care when it comes to predicting grades. Maybe talk with the individual students and get their views.

All my teachers speak with everyone individually 3-4 times a year to set realistic target grades which they use for predictions. I'm in Scotland though

Reply 8

chickenonsteroids

17

It argues that teenagers should no longer apply to university with predictions of what they will achieve in their A-levels, but instead only submit their applications once they have their final grades

I like this idea but i'm not sure what the cons are of it ?

Any thoughts on it ?

Reply 9

fluteflute

OP

19

Original post by chickenonsteroids

I like this idea but i'm not sure what the cons are of it ?

Any thoughts on it ?

Less teaching time / more rushed applications

Reply 10

Dusty12

13

I find this very easy to believe. Do teachers honestly think that the lazy student who got CCCD through laziness and lack of effort will actually bother more at A2? :colonhash:

I wish we just had a system where we applied with actual grades.

That said, my GCSE predictions were exactly right, which is certainly impressive in my opinion!

Reply 11

Nat400

Original post by chickenonsteroids

I like this idea but i'm not sure what the cons are of it ?

Any thoughts on it ?

It would mean that we would all have roughly a month. (Between august and September) to get our grades, apply for uni, be accepted/decline then decide where you want to go, apply for accommodation and arrange everything else that goes along with moving to Uni.

Reply 12

chloemo14

13

Original post by Nat400

It would mean that we would all have roughly a month. (Between august and September) to get our grades, apply for uni, be accepted/decline then decide where you want to go, apply for accommodation and arrange everything else that goes along with moving to Uni.

There was a suggestion of switching the uni academic year start to January in order to make it more feasible I think?

Reply 13

fretter778

14

Not too surprising. I was predicted A*AB and got AAB. My UCAS form said I was predicted A* for psychology. I got a B at AS and dropped it!

Reply 14

thompsonic7

16

I'm predicted what I got at AS. To be predicted a higher grade at my school you need to send a formal letter to the headmaster appealing why to have your grade raised, and even then it's unlikely. It seems ridiculous that some people on TSR get predicted up to two grades higher than they achieved at AS for no reason. I got 88.5% in my English Lit AS and others with less are being predicted A*s!

Reply 15

misst911

15

I think predicted grades are rubbish, they're unreliable and just make you feel like a failure when you don't reach them.

Reply 16

Akbar2k7

20

I think ill get my predicted, because I just messed up last year. Just because someone flopped AS doesn't mean they can't rape A2 tbh my poor AS is probably the only reason I'm revising 3 hours a day rather than 3 hours a month. I cant wait till August to see how I have redeemed my former failings.

Reply 17

Advanced Subsidiary

18

Original post by thompsonic7

I'm predicted what I got at AS. To be predicted a higher grade at my school you need to send a formal letter to the headmaster appealing why to have your grade raised, and even then it's unlikely. It seems ridiculous that some people on TSR get predicted up to two grades higher than they achieved at AS for no reason. I got 88.5% in my English Lit AS and others with less are being predicted A*s!

Well I got predicted a C, but was consistently producing A grade work so had to get the grade changed.

Reply 18

Bobsyourteapots

14

My predicted grades were soooo off its untrue! But I still somehow got into university with barely any passes. I feel like predicted grades can really overwhelm some people with pressure or boost someones ego and make them think they're A* material when they're only average :smile:

Reply 19

MissBlueskys

13

This is really odd to me. My college puts our predicted grades as what we got at AS Level. It took me a long time to persuade my History teacher to put my predicted grade up from a C to B. As I am resitting my AS and had to show him that I was revising alot, which I am putting the work into. Also my AS teacher had consistently graded me at A/B in practice exams and it wasn't like I didn't revise for my exam. My other grades are both A's as thats what I got at AS.

"fewer than 10% of students have three correct predicted grades"

Quick Reply

Related discussions

Latest

Trending

Trending

Articles for you