Why Corbyn's election as leader has doomed the Labour Party
There is an interesting article by the Pollster Peter Kellner in the New Statesman which indicates the gap between the Corbynistas and the people Labour will have to win over to achieve any sort of power.
In fact the figures are fascinating if not surprising because if replicated in an election they would lead to perpetual opposition and effective electoral oblivion
This disconnect between the activists and needed voters has doomed the Labour Party, no?
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/09/new-polling-data-shows-challenge-facing-jeremy-corbyn
In fact the figures are fascinating if not surprising because if replicated in an election they would lead to perpetual opposition and effective electoral oblivion
This disconnect between the activists and needed voters has doomed the Labour Party, no?
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/09/new-polling-data-shows-challenge-facing-jeremy-corbyn
(edited 8 years ago)
Scroll to see replies
I am not convinced anyone knows what will happen. 4 million odd people out of the blue voted for UKIP which up until recently was a total dead end party and Scotland voted SNP across the board. My feeling is that there is an underlying mood of dissatisfaction towards mainstream politics because the main parties all look and feel the same. You don't vote for the one you want. You vote for the one you dislike the least. Only time will tell. The only think you can guarantee, is that pollsters are rubbish predicting what an electorate will do.
Original post by ByEeek
I am not convinced anyone knows what will happen. 4 million odd people out of the blue voted for UKIP which up until recently was a total dead end party and Scotland voted SNP across the board. My feeling is that there is an underlying mood of dissatisfaction towards mainstream politics because the main parties all look and feel the same. You don't vote for the one you want. You vote for the one you dislike the least. Only time will tell. The only think you can guarantee, is that pollsters are rubbish predicting what an electorate will do.
There is definitely an underlying mood of dissatisfaction towards mainstream politics, and also toward the mainstream media. It is interesting how hostile not only the political establishment is towards both Corbyn and UKIP but also the Broadcasters and Newspapers.
Both are trashed (from a different perspective) and yet the more the great and the good tell everyone how stupid and wrong it is to support a non mainstream party the more popular they become!
I also agree that we just can't predict voting intentions nearly five years ahead.
BUT, but, but short of a terrible economic crisis, which of course is eminently possible it is hard to believe there will be anything other than a Tory Government for a long time henceforward. For one big reason, the Labour Party is now so divided between its membership and MP's. Everyone is cosying along just now but both left and right HATE each other.
Divided parties lose. The Tories in the late 90's, Labour in the 80's, Labour in the 50's, the Tories in 1906, the Liberals in the 1890's, the Tories in the 1840's.
It is just how it seems to work in our system.
Agreed. But we have just come out of coalition. There is nothing to stop future governments being made of a coalition too. For me, the next big ruckus will happen if the UK votes to leave the EU (which is a decided possibility). This will inevitably see Scotland push for independence once and for all, after which time all bets are off. Interesting times ahead.
Original post by ByEeek
Agreed. But we have just come out of coalition. There is nothing to stop future governments being made of a coalition too. For me, the next big ruckus will happen if the UK votes to leave the EU (which is a decided possibility). This will inevitably see Scotland push for independence once and for all, after which time all bets are off. Interesting times ahead.
Yes, the EU vote will be THE decisive political event of this generation, such a huge decision. It is going to be fascinating either way.
The way things are going, mind, with the strain imposed on the EU by this migrant crisis, and the still unresolved Greek debt disaster there may not BE an EU to belong to for much longer!
Original post by chocolate hottie
There is an interesting article by the Pollster Peter Kellner in the New Statesman which indicates the gap between the Corbynistas and the people Labour will have to win over to achieve any sort of power.
In fact the figures are fascinating if not surprising because if replicated in an election they would lead to perpetual opposition and effective electoral oblivion
This disconnect between the activists and needed voters has doomed the Labour Party, no?
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/09/new-polling-data-shows-challenge-facing-jeremy-corbyn
In fact the figures are fascinating if not surprising because if replicated in an election they would lead to perpetual opposition and effective electoral oblivion
This disconnect between the activists and needed voters has doomed the Labour Party, no?
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/09/new-polling-data-shows-challenge-facing-jeremy-corbyn
Thos is of course assuming that the Corbynites expect him to win- even his biggest cheerleaders don't think it will happen- most just want to punish the blairites for having the sheer audacity to have won the argument decades ago.
Hopefully after two years of Corbynite stop the war/ respect/ solidarity for Hamas/ Putin sympathising nonsense he'll be chucked out for good
Corbyn is the only hope for the UK. We need to get out of this aristocracy run by arms, banks and crony politicians.
Original post by Davij038
Thos is of course assuming that the Corbynites expect him to win- even his biggest cheerleaders don't think it will happen- most just want to punish the blairites for having the sheer audacity to have won the argument decades ago.
Hopefully after two years of Corbynite stop the war/ respect/ solidarity for Hamas/ Putin sympathising nonsense he'll be chucked out for good
Hopefully after two years of Corbynite stop the war/ respect/ solidarity for Hamas/ Putin sympathising nonsense he'll be chucked out for good
That hope of a putsch is certainly energising the right of the party just now. I saw Mandelson is quoted as saying they should wait for him to fail before trying to remove him.
It isn't going to be that easy though. As Leader he automatically gets his name on the ballot next time, he doesn't need MP's to nominate him. And the party at large is way to the left.
Even if they manage it, the sense of anger and betrayal from those who have put their faith in him will be seismic. It is going to rip Labour asunder for longer than this parliament.
What the Blairites need to do is to come up with a compelling vision. They don't have one now, and they never really had one except for winning for its own sake, arguably.
Managing our long term national decline and a period of severe economic austerity slightly better and more fairly than the Tories doesn't exactly get the juices flowing does it?
(edited 8 years ago)
Original post by chocolate hottie
Divided parties lose. The Tories in the late 90's, Labour in the 80's, Labour in the 50's, the Tories in 1906, the Liberals in the 1890's, the Tories in the 1840's.
It is just how it seems to work in our system.
Divided parties lose. The Tories in the late 90's, Labour in the 80's, Labour in the 50's, the Tories in 1906, the Liberals in the 1890's, the Tories in the 1840's.
It is just how it seems to work in our system.
Hopefully the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party will unite behind David Cameron trying to campaign for an "In" vote in the referendum and not split the party like happened in the 1990s.
Original post by Bill_Gates
Corbyn is the only hope for the UK. We need to get out of this aristocracy run by arms, banks and crony politicians.
Amen to that brother!
I'll be second in line up against the wall, waiting to be shot come the Revolution.
After you have been summarily dealt with as a schismatic counter revolutionary by whichever group comes out on top... :-)
Original post by chocolate hottie
Amen to that brother!
I'll be second in line up against the wall, waiting to be shot come the Revolution.
After you have been summarily dealt with as a schismatic counter revolutionary by whichever group comes out on top... :-)
I'll be second in line up against the wall, waiting to be shot come the Revolution.
After you have been summarily dealt with as a schismatic counter revolutionary by whichever group comes out on top... :-)
you know what happens when right wing governments collapse? the same.
Original post by chocolate hottie
That hope of a putsch is certainly energising the right of the party just now. I saw Mandelson is quoted as saying they should wait for him to fail before trying to remove him.
It isn't going to be that easy though. As Leader he automatically gets his name on the ballot next time, he doesn't need MP's to nominate him. And the party at large is way to the left.
Even if they manage it, the sense of anger and betrayal from those who have put their faith in him will be seismic. It is going to rip Labour asunder for longer than this parliament.
What the Blairites need to do is to come up with a compelling vision. They don't have one now, and they never really had one except for winning for its own sake, arguably.
Managing our long term national decline and a period of severe economic austerity slightly better and more fairly than the Tories doesn't exactly get the juices flowing does it?
It isn't going to be that easy though. As Leader he automatically gets his name on the ballot next time, he doesn't need MP's to nominate him. And the party at large is way to the left.
Even if they manage it, the sense of anger and betrayal from those who have put their faith in him will be seismic. It is going to rip Labour asunder for longer than this parliament.
What the Blairites need to do is to come up with a compelling vision. They don't have one now, and they never really had one except for winning for its own sake, arguably.
Managing our long term national decline and a period of severe economic austerity slightly better and more fairly than the Tories doesn't exactly get the juices flowing does it?
\i think essentailly they're going to have to wait for him (Or his annointed successor) to fail in 2020 as badl as they expect. I think this has been coming for a while- the socialists have gotten complacent and conspirational.
They believe that anyone could have beaten John Major in '97. Nope, their government was becoming more popular again towards the end and it took a lot of work ie by dumping that particular clause and signing up to Tory spending plans etc.
Theyve radically shiften in opinion of Ed Miliband- he went from being the darling of the left to another blairite stooge identical to the tories.
They've fallen for the SNP claims its a socialist party- if you ignore trident and independence i'd say they were more blairite than Milibands party- (Yet again, its perception that matters!)
They think, despite a realm of evidence to the contrary that the public want an anti austerity socialist alternative- which must be why Cameron won outright.
They think that the new influx of mass membership means that this is reflective of the entire country. It isnt. the new Statesman, that disgusting Tory supporting rag has shown that the difference between these members and people considering voting labour is staggering.
The reality is that some people dont want to be part of a party faithful, but they want competeant leaders to manage the country and for them to get on with their lives.
Original post by chocolate hottie
There is definitely an underlying mood of dissatisfaction towards mainstream politics, and also toward the mainstream media. It is interesting how hostile not only the political establishment is towards both Corbyn and UKIP but also the Broadcasters and Newspapers.
Both are trashed (from a different perspective) and yet the more the great and the good tell everyone how stupid and wrong it is to support a non mainstream party the more popular they become!
I also agree that we just can't predict voting intentions nearly five years ahead.
BUT, but, but short of a terrible economic crisis, which of course is eminently possible it is hard to believe there will be anything other than a Tory Government for a long time henceforward. For one big reason, the Labour Party is now so divided between its membership and MP's. Everyone is cosying along just now but both left and right HATE each other.
Divided parties lose. The Tories in the late 90's, Labour in the 80's, Labour in the 50's, the Tories in 1906, the Liberals in the 1890's, the Tories in the 1840's.
It is just how it seems to work in our system.
Both are trashed (from a different perspective) and yet the more the great and the good tell everyone how stupid and wrong it is to support a non mainstream party the more popular they become!
I also agree that we just can't predict voting intentions nearly five years ahead.
BUT, but, but short of a terrible economic crisis, which of course is eminently possible it is hard to believe there will be anything other than a Tory Government for a long time henceforward. For one big reason, the Labour Party is now so divided between its membership and MP's. Everyone is cosying along just now but both left and right HATE each other.
Divided parties lose. The Tories in the late 90's, Labour in the 80's, Labour in the 50's, the Tories in 1906, the Liberals in the 1890's, the Tories in the 1840's.
It is just how it seems to work in our system.
Labour would win if not for the legions of pensioners who turn out to vote tory. Our political system is more divided by age than ever. In the last election young people were 172% more likely to vote Labour, and over 65s were 206% more likely to bote Tory. This is bad.
The real problem isn't Labour winning or losing. It's that young people are disenfranchised, resulting in policies that cut benefits to the young (e.g. nimbyist not building of new houses == Tories, state education cuts == Tories) and keep benefits for the old (e.g. bus passes for wealthy pensioners == Tories, low taxes on properties == Tories).
The system is so warped that even Labour has started to introduce these policies.
Paradoxically, if you are Labour, your best chance of winning is to not try to win over those who vote. You won't be able to. It's to inspire those who don't and you will only do that by sticking to your guns.
(edited 8 years ago)
Another problem with over 65s determining the election result is that they are unproductive. They generate wealth mainly by hoarding property and relying on rentierism and rising house prices.
When your economic system rewards unproductive behaviour, or disincentivises productive behaviour, the outcome is bad.
For example, the glorious Han Dynasty was brought to its knees by wealthy landlords/farm owners becoming greedy, creating more abilities to evade tax and exploiting their workers more, and basically become more and more powerful until they were essentially beyond the reach of law. In the end both the poor working class and the emperor himself were powerless against these wealthy landowners as they hoarded more and more for themselves.
When drought conditions persisted, the landlords took little care of the farm workers, causing more and more angst, ending up the famous in Yellow Turban Rebellion.
There were religious factors too (tax breaks for Buddhists etc.) and also corruption in the court itself. But simple economic effects override.
When your economic system rewards unproductive behaviour, or disincentivises productive behaviour, the outcome is bad.
For example, the glorious Han Dynasty was brought to its knees by wealthy landlords/farm owners becoming greedy, creating more abilities to evade tax and exploiting their workers more, and basically become more and more powerful until they were essentially beyond the reach of law. In the end both the poor working class and the emperor himself were powerless against these wealthy landowners as they hoarded more and more for themselves.
When drought conditions persisted, the landlords took little care of the farm workers, causing more and more angst, ending up the famous in Yellow Turban Rebellion.
There were religious factors too (tax breaks for Buddhists etc.) and also corruption in the court itself. But simple economic effects override.
after piggygate daves careers over
Original post by Raiden10
Labour would win if not for the legions of pensioners who turn out to vote tory. Our political system is more divided by age than ever. In the last election young people were 172% more likely to vote Labour, and over 65s were 206% more likely to bote Tory. This is bad.
The real problem isn't Labour winning or losing. It's that young people are disenfranchised, resulting in policies that cut benefits to the young (e.g. nimbyist not building of new houses == Tories, state education cuts == Tories) and keep benefits for the old (e.g. bus passes for wealthy pensioners == Tories, low taxes on properties == Tories).
The system is so warped that even Labour has started to introduce these policies.
Paradoxically, if you are Labour, your best chance of winning is to not try to win over those who vote. You won't be able to. It's to inspire those who don't and you will only do that by sticking to your guns.
The real problem isn't Labour winning or losing. It's that young people are disenfranchised, resulting in policies that cut benefits to the young (e.g. nimbyist not building of new houses == Tories, state education cuts == Tories) and keep benefits for the old (e.g. bus passes for wealthy pensioners == Tories, low taxes on properties == Tories).
The system is so warped that even Labour has started to introduce these policies.
Paradoxically, if you are Labour, your best chance of winning is to not try to win over those who vote. You won't be able to. It's to inspire those who don't and you will only do that by sticking to your guns.
It is true that pensioners are more likely to vote and are more right wing. But I am not sure what your answer is? Euthanasia? Disenfranchisement beyond retirement?
If young people refuse to engage politically then they deserve to get screwed over by those who can be bothered to vote. That is how democracy works, interest groups vote for their self interest.
What amazes me is how those at the bottom of the pile fail to realise this and tend not to vote. About half the country takes more out of the state than contribute in taxes. If all who benefit from higher taxation
plus everyone else on the left all voted for an increased welfare state they could outvote the right.
I bet if you analysed it a majority of those on benefits don't EVER exercise their democratic prerogative.
Original post by Raiden10
Labour would win if not for the legions of pensioners who turn out to vote tory. Our political system is more divided by age than ever. In the last election young people were 172% more likely to vote Labour, and over 65s were 206% more likely to bote Tory. This is bad.
The real problem isn't Labour winning or losing. It's that young people are disenfranchised, resulting in policies that cut benefits to the young (e.g. nimbyist not building of new houses == Tories, state education cuts == Tories) and keep benefits for the old (e.g. bus passes for wealthy pensioners == Tories, low taxes on properties == Tories).
The system is so warped that even Labour has started to introduce these policies.
Paradoxically, if you are Labour, your best chance of winning is to not try to win over those who vote. You won't be able to. It's to inspire those who don't and you will only do that by sticking to your guns.
The real problem isn't Labour winning or losing. It's that young people are disenfranchised, resulting in policies that cut benefits to the young (e.g. nimbyist not building of new houses == Tories, state education cuts == Tories) and keep benefits for the old (e.g. bus passes for wealthy pensioners == Tories, low taxes on properties == Tories).
The system is so warped that even Labour has started to introduce these policies.
Paradoxically, if you are Labour, your best chance of winning is to not try to win over those who vote. You won't be able to. It's to inspire those who don't and you will only do that by sticking to your guns.
To your last point I don't know if you have ever canvassed for the Labour Party?
I have and the great British public's indifference to it is staggering. Most people are either hostile to it or couldn't care less.
So good luck with that...
Original post by generallee
It is true that pensioners are more likely to vote and are more right wing. But I am not sure what your answer is? Euthanasia? Disenfranchisement beyond retirement?
If young people refuse to engage politically then they deserve to get screwed over by those who can be bothered to vote. That is how democracy works, interest groups vote for their self interest.
What amazes me is how those at the bottom of the pile fail to realise this and tend not to vote. About half the country takes more out of the state than contribute in taxes. If all who benefit from higher taxation
plus everyone else on the left all voted for an increased welfare state they could outvote the right.
I bet if you analysed it a majority of those on benefits don't EVER exercise their democratic prerogative.
If young people refuse to engage politically then they deserve to get screwed over by those who can be bothered to vote. That is how democracy works, interest groups vote for their self interest.
What amazes me is how those at the bottom of the pile fail to realise this and tend not to vote. About half the country takes more out of the state than contribute in taxes. If all who benefit from higher taxation
plus everyone else on the left all voted for an increased welfare state they could outvote the right.
I bet if you analysed it a majority of those on benefits don't EVER exercise their democratic prerogative.
Democracy works on the basis of one person one vote. What are we supposed to do with people who don't turn up?
Solutions:
(1) Compulsory voting. E.g. Australia has achieved 90% turnout using this method.
(2) Currently our system assumes that if someone did not turn up to vote, then it is made the assumption that they would spoil their ballot. We could assume they would have voted for the same party as last time, the same party as their age group, etc., many options.
(3) Make it easier for voters. Allow everyone to vote online using their social security number etc. Remove the faff of registration.
I hear your argument but saying "they/we deserve to get screwed" is perhaps not constructive.
Quick Reply
Related discussions
- Was Jeremy Corbyn a Better Labour leader than Kier Starmer
- Do you wish Johnson to return?
- Rethinking the nation state - what a Labour Government could do
- Lee Anderson defects to reform
- 2023–24 by-elections thread
- 2024 UK general election speculation and build-up thread
- TSR opinion poll, Feb 2024: how would you vote in the general election?
- Mark Drakeford resigns: Welsh Labour leadership election for a new FM
- Should i vote Labour?
- Should Starmer hand the Labour Party leadership to Reeves?
- Cameron-comeback, opinions?
- Rochdale By-election: George Galloway elected as new MP
- Edexcel A-Level Politics Paper 1 Essay Feedback
- Edexcel A-level Politics Paper 1 (9PL0 01) - 23rd May 2023 [Exam Chat]
- When will the next General election be ?
- Reshuffle: David Cameron is back and Braverman sacked
- Have the Tories stopped being Conservative?
- who is donald trump
- Jeremy Hunt to deliver budget on March 6 as election looms
- How does one even go about answering this question!?
Latest
Trending
Last reply 1 day ago
Even Europe’s far-right firebrands seem to sense Brexit is a disaster- The GuardianLast reply 2 days ago
Why is the political left now censorious and authoritarian??Last reply 4 days ago
Sunak rejects offer of youth mobility scheme between EU and UKLast reply 1 week ago
Rayner denies wrongdoing over council house sale amid police reviewLast reply 2 weeks ago
TSR Goes Green: How important will the environment be in this year's election?Last reply 3 weeks ago
TSR Big Discussion #1: What should be top priority to protect the environment?Last reply 3 weeks ago
Where do you stand on the political spectrum (8values)? – Take a quiz here!Last reply 3 weeks ago
2024 UK general election speculation and build-up threadLast reply 3 weeks ago
No progress made on half of UK government’s levelling-up targetsLast reply 3 weeks ago
Trump needs a $464m bond in six days. What if he can't get it?Trending
Last reply 1 day ago
Even Europe’s far-right firebrands seem to sense Brexit is a disaster- The GuardianLast reply 2 days ago
Why is the political left now censorious and authoritarian??Last reply 4 days ago
Sunak rejects offer of youth mobility scheme between EU and UKLast reply 1 week ago
Rayner denies wrongdoing over council house sale amid police reviewLast reply 2 weeks ago
TSR Goes Green: How important will the environment be in this year's election?Last reply 3 weeks ago
TSR Big Discussion #1: What should be top priority to protect the environment?Last reply 3 weeks ago
Where do you stand on the political spectrum (8values)? – Take a quiz here!Last reply 3 weeks ago
2024 UK general election speculation and build-up threadLast reply 3 weeks ago
No progress made on half of UK government’s levelling-up targetsLast reply 3 weeks ago
Trump needs a $464m bond in six days. What if he can't get it?
