What if Scotland keeps us in the EU.

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Why Scottish Independence Is Highly Unlikely If Britain Votes Leave

A lot of people seem to be very concerned that if Britain chooses to Leave the European Union on the Referendum on 23rd June that there is a risk that the SNP will take this opportunity to force a second Scottish referendum and finally grasp independence. Well, I've been doing some research into this and you might be surprised at the information I've discovered.

It's essentially taken for granted that Scotland will vote to stay in the EU. This isn't the case. The most recent polls show that less than 50% of Scots would vote to stay in the EU. Without getting at least 50% of Scots voting to stay in the EU it'd be very difficult for Sturgeon to argue that the majority are against the decision by the rest of the UK that voted to Leave and, as a result, couldn't really, legitimately, use this to this to get a second referendum.

Moreover, if you take a look at the opinion polling for Scottish independence now (polls below) pretty much every poll, but the odd few, say if there was a second referendum Scotland would vote to stay in the United Kingdom. This is, basically, exactly the same as the opinion polling had been during the 2014 referendum, which resulted in Scotland voting to stay in the United Kingdom. Nothing, really, appears to have changed in the opinion of Scots in relation to Scottish independence.

So, basically, it's not certain that Scotland would vote in favour to stay in the EU, if it did it's not certain that they'd get a second referendum and if they did it's by far not certain that they'd vote to leave the UK. (Highly unlikely, judging by this and what we've learnt before.)

As a result, I really think an independent Scotland is, at most, a very minor risk of Voting to Leave the EU.

I'd also like to add something that's interesting; note the opinion polling for an independent Scotland pre and post referendum. The result of the referendum, of course, was 45% voting to leave the UK. That's relatively close when you consider the winning 55%, the 'No' campaign, absolutely dominated the opinions polls. Now compare this to the opinion polls of the EU referendum. These polls are incredibly varied. To put this into a metaphor using chocolate, the polls for Scottish independence are like Maltesers (they're all the same but occasionally you get a really hard one.) whereas the European Union Referendum polls are like Revels (they're a mixed bag). Out of the past 16 EU Referendum polls (As of 13th May 2016), remain has won 7 and Leave has won 9. Now, if the 2014 Scottish referendum vote for independence was 45% with the polls consistently, completely trouncing the Scottish independence campaign, I'd say it's a good bet to say the Leave campaign have got a far better shot at winning the EU referendum judging by the polls for that, as seen below.

Pre-Scottish Referendum Polls:

Post-Scottish Referendum Polls:

Pre-EU Referendum Polls:

Ultimately, the Scottish factor shouldn't really even be a thought in the mind of people when deciding whether to vote remain or Leave, let alone be the basis for how they vote.

A final note to those who support the Scottish National Party: If you do consider the SNP to truly be something different, not part of the establishment, and that their main goal is to get independence for Scotland, consider this: if Sturgeon says a Leave vote would lead to a second Scottish independence referendum, why is she campaigning against it? I have no doubt Sturgeon wants Scottish independence, but I am of the opinion that she wants this purely for herself, to be the leader of a new nation and a new establishment. If you want real change I think that can only be done by taking down the establishment, not replacing it with a new one.

Reply 21

sleepysnooze

it will obviously foster tensions between the two nations. one hates westminster because it's english control, so they prefer belgian control because it's not english control. the other one wants its own nation-state to control itself, regardless of inter-ethnic tensions.