The 'Brexit Meaningful Vote' Thread - May loses 432-202

The bookies think it's highly likely that the government will win tomorrow.

Paddy Power:
Government to win No Confidence Vote 1/20
Government to lose No Confidence Vote 9/1

The simple fact remains that the NI situation is insoluble without staying at least in the CU. That was what Tory Brexiteers (and Labour) were rejecting this evening, yet they have no viable alternative short of a hard crash out. Theresa May and her government know this and viewed from one perspective, they have at least been trying to act in the genuine national interest and not servicing the knee jerk empty headed nonsense of the fantasy land Brexiteers. All the vote really showed is that the latter are in a majority.

My view is we are now heading inevitably for a hard crash out and that means very severe economic consequences. The electorate will pay the price and the poorer people, the hard pressed C2DE workers in coastal towns and rustbelt regions, the white older voters, will pay the highest price.

Of course, they will not blame themselves and they won't know enough to blame the secretive libertarian and right wing economics-driven hedge funds and overseas oligarchs who exploited them to drive this along. So they will be directed to blame immigrants and perhaps other segments of the working class.

Inevitably this will result in mass social dislocation, violence and further malaise. The UK is now poised to begin a full-scale Argentina-style decline.

The bookies think it's highly likely that the government will win tomorrow.

Paddy Power:
Government to win No Confidence Vote 1/20
Government to lose No Confidence Vote 9/1

iirc the bookies got the outcome of the R*f*r*nd*m completely wrong...

Least we agree on something mate lol

iirc the bookies got the outcome of the R*f*r*nd*m completely wrong...

The DUP’s Brexit spokesman has told radio 5 live that they will back Theresa May in a no-confidence vote.

So it's January 15th, which means that the Meaningful Vote is finally upon us after it's delay from Mid-December.

As I'm sure everyone is aware, Theresa May is widely expected to lose this vote, triggering yet more uncertainty for the nation. There's even talk of her losing by a record margin for a Government of the UK. Should she lose by at least 167 votes or more, then she'll have managed that feat.

Thereafter, as mandated by previous votes, Theresa May will have 3 days to come up with 'Plan B', and bring that to the house. As far as what that entails, no one knows. And it does seem like neither does the public. Sir John Curtice penned a great article looking at the various options.

Most striking is the following graph showing just how divided we've become. Which option would you go for?




So with that said, it's on to the Meaningful Vote, to see what unfolds.

Resources

You can watch on ParliamentTV

You can also watch on BBC Parliament

An explanation on the Meaningful Vote, by Liam Laurence Smyth - the Clerk of Legislation in the House of Commons

House of Commons Twitter for rolling updates

BBC live updates

The debate is ongoing, voting expected at 7pm!

Any questions, feel free to ask

It makes no deal more likely but only because it rules out the negotiated deal, I still think she will flap it and go for an extension which will do nothing unless she negotiates a Canada style agreement but more likely she goes for an off the shelf Norway agreement as her get out.

I don't think she has the lady balls to do no deal.

Why do we need a second referendum?

lol my friend describe brexit as couple breaking up but boyfriend still demand girlfriend to sleep with him

Because it would be undemocratic to do what needs to be done without one. Brexit simply isn't working.

Yes and girlfriend still wants him and boyfriend openly states he won't leave unless girlfriend agrees.

G/f says b/f still needs her. B/f is of two minds about it. G/f has 27 mates who all agree with her. Sigh.