Applying for University beyond predicted grades

As of current, my predicted grades are at A*BB which falls short of the A*AA entry requirement by around 16 UCAS points. The course im aiming for is economics and all of my aspirational choices typically have around A*AA reqs. If by chance my predicted do not change are my chances of getting offers from unis of those requirements completely blown out of the water?

Reply 1

PQ

Clearing and Applications Advisor

21

This is all about your attitude to risk.

Firstly you have 4 months before the deadline to apply to improve your work and demonstrate to your teachers that you are capable and on track to get A grades instead of Bs.

Presumably you’re confident that you can get A*AA or higher next August. If that’s the case then would you be willing to attend a university with lower requirements? If you’re 100% committed to attending a university asking for A*AA or higher then using all of your choices for A*AA universities is a risk but not an unreasonable one. You just need to have a good gap year plan as your “insurance” choice instead of using 1 of your 5 UCAS choices on a university that you wouldn’t attend.

Reply 2

swanseajack1

19

Original post by xnvxn

As of current, my predicted grades are at A*BB which falls short of the A*AA entry requirement by around 16 UCAS points. The course im aiming for is economics and all of my aspirational choices typically have around A*AA reqs. If by chance my predicted do not change are my chances of getting offers from unis of those requirements completely blown out of the water?

Economics is a very competitive subject and there will be lots of rejections if you dont meet the grades at leading universities. I suspect 2 grades down at A*AA universities you are unlikely to get in.

As PQ has said it is about how much risk you are prepared to take and that you are unlikely to get places at top universities through clearing and you may end up taking a gap year.

Really none of us can decide for you but it would be sensible to have 1 or 2 universities at your grades.

The other issue is that London universities in particular tend to be massively oversubscribed so are a higher risk than provincial ones so you might need to consider that.

Another issue you may need to think about is that predicted grades tend to be massively excessive and most dont reach them.

Reply 3

ChiefBrody

20

In my experience the school will amend predicted grades if they think it is a hinderance to you getting an offer

However - a predicted grade isnt the same as your most likely grade, UCAS data (I think) shows that predicted grades can be on average 2 or 3 higher than achieved (for example, last year my daughter was predicted A*AA by school, she needed AAB for Econ at her preferred Uni. Everyone expected her to get AAA or better. She actually got ABB, which shocked her and her teachers - but is in the normal range from predicted to achieved. Her firm rejected)

Anyhow, back to the point, IME:
- your school will (probably) amend your predicted if you ask them
- the Unis may use your predicted grades to filter you out of offers, but they know predicted grade are a game
- with Econ there doesn't seem to be much tolerance if you miss a grade, the offer is probably the offer. You definitely want an insurance that you like

Reply 4

swanseajack1

19

Original post by ChiefBrody

In my experience the school will amend predicted grades if they think it is a hinderance to you getting an offer

However - a predicted grade isnt the same as your most likely grade, UCAS data (I think) shows that predicted grades can be on average 2 or 3 higher than achieved (for example, last year my daughter was predicted A*AA by school, she needed AAB for Econ at her preferred Uni. Everyone expected her to get AAA or better. She actually got ABB, which shocked her and her teachers - but is in the normal range from predicted to achieved. Her firm rejected)

Anyhow, back to the point, IME:
- your school will (probably) amend your predicted if you ask them
- the Unis may use your predicted grades to filter you out of offers, but they know predicted grade are a game
- with Econ there doesn't seem to be much tolerance if you miss a grade, the offer is probably the offer. You definitely want an insurance that you like

Many schools wont amend predicted grades and it is unprofessional to do so. It is those that do that are making predicted grades unreliable. Even if they do it to get offers they will still need to be achieved in actual exams and for top universities and Economics they likely wont drop grades.

The predicted grade nonsense and teachers failing to act professionally is what led to confetti grades being given as teacher assessed grades. Students from 2023 onwards are being assessed on the same basis as pre 2019 and we constantly see complaints on here about how difficult the grade boundaries were after so many teachers and schools misled them with inaccurate predicted grades.

Applying for University beyond predicted grades

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