North Shropshire by-election

Also there's nothing "Centrist" or "moderate" about the Tory lockdowns, net zero schtick and profligate spending.

Dealing with the pandemic should be outside politics, it's like a war.

The way Tory libertarians have tried to turn it into a political dogfight about supposed freedom issues has been a disaster electorally for them.

Eh I agree with you...

One thing occurs to me. What PL football club do folk from North Shropshire support Liverpool or Everton or one of the Manchester clubs? Boris still has a very severe Liverpool problem.

Yes, I meant as a percentage.

I don't think there's anything wrong with my theory that a great many Tory voters sat on their hands. The Tory vote fell by 23,412 from 2019. The LibDems put on 12,314 votes, but Lab lost 8,809 votes, which on a narrow reading suggests that only around 4,000 Tory voters switched sides. However, it is of course likely that a lot of Lab voters, seeing it as a no hoper, also stayed at home. Even if half did that, that would still mean only around 8,000 Tories actively switched, indicating that some 15 or 16 thousand stayed at home.

I'm sure the parties will be pouring over their canvassing returns, but on the face of it this is not quite such bad news for the Conservatives as it seems, since voters that don't actively switch can be persuaded back to the polls in a general election provided they have a big change of leadership. However I'm quite certain the result dooms Johnson.

There's lots of Wolves (remember Wolverhampton isn't far away at all!), Aston Villa and Birmingham City as well as Liverpool and Manchester teams. (Plus Shrewsbury Town and TNS!)

Not sure that's hugely politically significant mind...

Depends what exactly you mean by liberal. But in any case, protest vote.


Yeah but you and people like you have been banging that drum for fifty years.

Along with ,"the Tories are going to privatise the NHS any minute now!!!1!!!"

Also there's nothing "Centrist" or "moderate" about the Tory lockdowns, net zero schtick and profligate spending.

Firstly we must congratulate the Lib Dem's on a 34% swing.

Secondly I would avoid getting too excited. When you look at the raw numbers it looks like most of the additional votes came from Labour and about 15000 Tories stayed home. That suggests a fair chance that it will go back blue come the harsh reality of a serious general election vote.

John Curtice was just saying on BBC radio that if this result was projected to a general election, the Tories would have 3 seats.

And if Boris poses naked apart from his MA gown that may happen

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election

Thanks.

It is politically significant on the Wirral and in the leafy Liverpool suburbs where unlike the rest of the North, the Tories had no breakthrough at all. That is almost certainly due to personal hostility to Boris.

I hate the conservatives, I also hate labour, I could not vote for them in good conscience. Lid dems are also scum in my book but at least they are pretty much a breath of fresh stench- vote Lib Dem at the next election.

The fine old english electoral politics tradition of tactically voting for the candidate of the party disliked the least.
I'm not lending Boris my vote again in his constituency again and I'll never vote Labour or Sinn Fein.
Won't vote Lib Dem while Ed Davey is leader.
Looks like The Official Monster Raving Loony Party or DUP may be getting my vote next election, solely for being honest about their insane politics.

Is it a straight DUP/Sinn Fein fight where you are?

Yes.

@Cancelled Alice and @londonmyst

Why not the Reform Party?